Zay Flowers is one of three WRs in Baltimore aiming to become Lamar Jackson’s second pass-catching option behind TE Mark Andrews. Can he become a consistent fantasy football starter in 2023? Let’s take a closer look.
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What Has the Fantasy Ceiling Been for WRs Playing With Lamar Jackson in the Past?
When trying to assess the fantasy ceiling of an entire position group, it is worth delving into the past passing production from their QB.
One tricky thing about trying to predict a breakout fantasy WR in this Baltimore offense is the lack of pure volume.
Jackson has thrown for over 3,000 yards, 30 TD passes, and 400 passing attempts in a season just once in his entire career, which was during his MVP campaign back in 2019.
Some might argue that Jackson failed to play the final month of the season the past two years, and while that might be true, he still averaged fewer passing attempts per game last season than rookie QB Desmond Ridder (27.1 to 28.75).
However, even with the pure passing volume concerns and large target share from Andrews, it is worth noting that Marquise Brown did see 100+ targets in two of his three seasons and registered a WR22 fantasy finish at WR back in 2021.
What Impact Will Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken Have on the Ravens’ Passing Game?
Former Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman was a bit of a polarizing figure. On one hand, he helped build a run-heavy offensive scheme that catered to Jackson’s unique skill set.
On the flip side, one could argue Roman’s system has limited the passing development of Jackson, which is evident by the fact that the vast majority of his passing career-highs are from four seasons ago.
Well, fast forward to 2023 … Roman is out, and Todd Monken is in as the new OC.
Monken has already stated he wants to take some of the burden off of Jackson, who has more rushing attempts of any QB in NFL history through his first five seasons, by getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers.
Another encouraging sign for the Ravens opening up the passing playbook for Jackson is Monken’s track record as an offensive coordinator in the NFL. Back in 2018, he was the OC of the league’s top passing attack when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers threw for 5,358 yards.
How Does Zay Flowers’ Skill Set Fit Into This Offense?
After the Ravens decided to trade Jackson’s top WR, Brown, during the 2022 NFL Draft, this offense struggled to capitalize on their deep shots when Jackson was healthy.
According to Inside Edge, Jackson completed passes for 20+ yards on just 24 of his 326 total passing attempts, which was tied for 24th among 33 qualified QBs.
Now, some of this certainly falls on Jackson (go back and look at his two misses for 40+ yard TD passes to Tylan Wallace and Devin Duvernay for proof), but there is no denying this offense felt the absence of Brown as a vertical threat.
This brings us to Flowers’ arrival.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with Flowers during his days at Boston College, he is a vertical threat who ran every route from every position in the formation and won on all three levels of the field with his route-running savvy and playmaking ability after the catch.
His versatility and explosiveness instantly give the Ravens’ passing offense the juice to capitalize on the multitude of deep-shot opportunities this unit will have when defenses load up to slow down the rushing attack.
Will Zay Flowers Become a Reliable Fantasy Starter at WR in 2023?
Baltimore’s offense is expected to look very different than what we’ve come to expect for the last four seasons with Jackson under center.
There was room in this offense for an undersized deep-threat WR to see over 100 targets with Andrews in the lineup and Roman calling the plays for Baltimore in 2020 and 2021.
In 2020, the Ravens averaged 25 passing attempts per game, which ranked dead last in the NFL.
Monken had two previous OC jobs in the NFL: 2018 with the Bucs and 2019 with the Cleveland Browns. He averaged over 39 passing attempts per game in 2018 and 33.6 in 2019.
Given the passing-volume track record of Monken’s offenses in the NFL, it would not shock me whatsoever if the Ravens averaged over 30 passing attempts per game this season.
If that is the case, Flowers certainly has the chance to carve out a large enough target share alongside Andrews to become a weekly reliable starting fantasy WR in this new-look Ravens offense.
The roadblock to that becoming a reality is the arrival of Odell Beckham Jr. and the development of Rashod Bateman.
Odell has produced big fantasy numbers in the past … when healthy. The problem is that OBJ hasn’t stepped foot on an NFL field for a live game since Super Bowl LVI back on Feb. 13, 2022, which in some part caused him to miss the entire 2022 NFL season.
In addition, Beckham has played every game of an NFL regular season twice in his entire nine-year NFL career.
Speaking of injuries, Bateman has already appeared on the PUP list after receiving a cortisone shot in the same foot he injured last season, which cost him 11 games and forced him to have surgery. Through his first two seasons, Bateman has missed 16 games.
Do you know how many games Flowers missed due to injury during his time at Boston College? Zero.
Flowers was available for all 48 games during his collegiate career.
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If you want to hold onto the fantasy glory days of OBJ and ignore his durability concerns … go ahead.
If you want to keep waiting on the impending Bateman breakout season that is entering its third year while he battles a lingering foot issue … be my guest.
I’ll gladly take the durable, versatile, and explosive Flowers at his current ADP of 124 in the 11th round and expect to get a reliable weekly fantasy starter with that investment.
