As a rookie in 2021, Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams had over 200 carries, 40 catches, and 1,200 yards. Only four other RBs over the past decade selected in the first two days of the NFL Draft had a first season like that: Le’Veon Bell, Kareem Hunt, Saquon Barkley, and Najee Harris.
That’s pretty impressive company to keep, and expectations were high entering 2022, but Williams tore his ACL and LCL in October, ending his sophomore season before it really had a chance to get going. What is his fantasy football outlook for 2023?
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Javonte Williams’ Fantasy Outlook
The first year of the Russell Wilson era in Denver was a disaster. Williams’ injury didn’t help, but this offense was such a mess that there was a Twitter account devoted to tracking Wilson’s passing-touchdown count to the number of toilets in his mansion (for the uninformed, Wilson won this battle … on New Year’s Day).
While the depth chart of skill players largely looks the same as it did 12 months ago (Wilson, Williams, Jerry Jeudy, and Courtland Sutton), the team did make some valuable tweaks that could result in vast improvement, both in “real” life and for fantasy managers. Would that make 2022 … potty training?
I’ll see myself out.
But before I do, remember that Sean Payton was hired to fix things. And things needed to be fixed, just ask him: “It might have been one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL.” Who doesn’t like some drama with their football?
Payton’s focus on discipline should help on the field, as will spending up to get the offensive line up to a top-10 unit grade, per PFN’s Dalton Miller. He also brought in Samaje Perine from Cincinnati to give this backfield legitimate depth, a spot that the previous regime tried to Band-Aid with past-their-prime-veterans.
Williams was able to avoid the first PUP list of the offseason, leading to the belief that he is nearing full-go and should be ready to hit the ground running in Week 1.
What Will the Impact of Samaje Perine Be on Williams?
You can never be 100% sure how a (new) coach is going to run a backfield, but when you combine a promising back coming off a major knee injury with the addition of a proven insurance option, it’s logical to think that a full-time feature role for Williams isn’t in the cards.
Payton rode Mark Ingram as “his guy” while in New Orleans, but he always had a secondary option that kept his work in check (and made our lives difficult). Whether it was Tim Hightower, Latavius Murray, or Alvin Kamara, there was always some carry-splitting to work around, and this year figures to be no different.
Of course, there is the potential for Williams to impress his new head coach and take over. In 2014, Ingram handled just 41.2% of Saints RB touches in the season opener, but he impressed by gaining yardage on 12 of 13 carries and scoring twice.
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Player Projections
He was hurt in Week 2 (hand), though he did get three of the first four running back touches in that game. Upon returning a month later, he had one game to work his way back … and then he touched the ball 119 times over the next four weeks, 17 more touches than any other player.
The moral of this story is patience. If you invest in Williams, you need to be aware that things could be slow going early on, but if you’re picking him, you believe in the talent, and the late-season schedule lines up nicely for him to realize his potential at the perfect time.
- Week 13 at HOU (4th-most yards/carry allowed last season)
- Week 14 at LAC (tied-most)
- Week 15 at DET (3rd-most)
- Week 16 vs. NE: (29th)
- Week 17 vs. LAC (tied-most)
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Williams at His ADP?
To snag Williams right now, you need to be willing to part with a seventh-round pick. Outside of George Pickens, I really don’t love this range on the draft board, so I’ll give you the green light to roll the dice.
Mike Evans and Marquise Brown are receivers in this neighborhood that I have no interest in, and David Montgomery is an example of a seventh-round back. Pass. I’m not actively targeting Williams going into the draft, but if he falls into my lap, I’ll make the click and hope for the late-season peak.
