Houston Texans RB Dameon Pierce took the fantasy football community by storm early last season. For 2023, the question will be whether he can sustain that level of success for a full season on a bad team.
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Dameon Pierce’s Fantasy Outlook
How impressive was Pierce’s early production? There were four running backs last season that had three straight games with at least 80 rushing yards, a rushing score, and multiple catches: Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and Pierce.
Woah.
The Texans were bad, are bad, and will continue to be bad. During Pierce’s stretch of strong production, they lost two of three games and averaged 19 points in the process.
Fantasy football managers generally overestimate the impact of team success on running backs (six of the top 11 per game fantasy RBs last season played for a losing team). Yet, the concerns here go much further than raw results.
Houston has an average offensive line that is in charge of protecting a rookie quarterback who has a receiver room that is populated with a handful of WR3s. That, friends, is potentially an issue when it comes to finding running lanes. Also of concern is the fact that 59.7% of Houston’s offensive plays last season came while trailing.
Pierce had six games with at least three catches as a rookie, a statistic that inspires optimism about his ability to produce in negative-game-script situations. But did you know that he didn’t have a single catch gain more than 16 yards and never hit 30 receiving yards in a game? The catch count is promising, but we need to see an ability to turn those receptions into fantasy points before assuming Pierce has that skill.
How Does Devin Singletary’s Addition Impact Pierce’s Value?
This is where things get iffy. The former Buffalo Bill inked a one-year prove-it deal with the Texans this offseason and enters averaging 4.7 yards per carry for his career. In addition to being efficient on the ground, Devin Singletary has proven capable as a pass catcher (38+ catches in each of the past three seasons).
MORE: RB Fantasy Football Sleepers 2023
Pierce, meanwhile, is coming off of a season that ended prematurely with an ankle injury, but the season was trending down prior to getting dinged up (last four games: 3.04 yards per carry).
Regardless of how you evaluate Singletary vs. Pierce when it comes to raw skill set, there’s no denying that any competition for carries is going to hurt the latter’s fantasy potential. His rookie season was defined by volume (85.6% of Houston’s RB carries through Week 14), but it’s unlikely he sniffs that number in 2023.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Pierce at His ADP?
Pierce is coming off the board at the end of Round 4 or the beginning of Round 5, and that’s going to make returning a profit difficult. That lands him as a top-20 RB, ahead of running backs like Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, Rachaad White, and James Conner — all of whom currently have a more clear path to consistent work.
In terms of other positions, you can have a Tier 2 QB at a similar price (Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, or Trevor Lawrence) or a high target-share receiver (Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore, Drake London, etc.).
Pierce runs hard, and that’s a good skill to have. However, the quantity and quality of touches are a concern for me and enough to make him a full fade.
