Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry has been the surest of things in fantasy since the second half of the 2018 season. Now approaching age 30, the end is near for the King. What is Henry’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Derrick Henry’s Fantasy Outlook
Toward the latter half of the 2018 season, the Titans finally stopped messing around with Dion Lewis and gave the keys to their backfield to Henry. Since then, he’s been a machine.
Henry has led all running backs in carries for three straight seasons, and it would’ve easily been four had a broken foot not ended his 2021 season halfway through. Henry led the NFL in carries per game.
Even with the nine-game absence, no running back has touched the ball more over the past four years than Henry. He’s posted a top-four finish at the position in 2019, 2020, and 2022. In 2021, he was actually the overall RB1 at the time he went down.
Eventually, age and volume are going to catch up with Henry. He’s now 29 years old, well past the age apex. We very rarely see fantasy RB1s come from players this old. But Henry may very well just be built differently.
Henry’s efficiency has declined from 2019/2020 levels. His yards per carry dropped from 5.4 in 2020 to 4.3 in 2021. The good news it held steady at 4.4 in 2022. Physically, Henry looks fine. There are no visible indications of him slowing down.
Efficiency-wise, Henry’s yards created per touch actually went up from 2.46 in 2021 to 2.85 in 2022. His broken-tackle rate increased from 7.3% to 12.3%, too. On the other hand, just 4.1% of his carries went for 15+ yards, 38th in the league.
Where Henry has made strides is in his passing volume. His 10.3% target share last season was a career-high. He also led all running backs in yards per route run and yards per reception.
Henry was never a bad receiver, they just didn’t use him there. He doesn’t need much to supplement his perennially monstrous opportunity share, which was 83% last season, second in the league.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Henry at His ADP?
Henry’s RB7 ADP, No. 15 overall, is almost entirely due to his age. Father Time remains undefeated. Running backs who rely heavily on rushing volume see the decline come quickly and precipitously. It will not be a gradual fall from grace from Henry. The question is whether that is coming this season.
If you asked me early in the offseason, I would’ve told you I was out. My general philosophy is I’d rather be out a year early than a year late. But the more I thought about it, the more I just can’t really justify bailing on Henry.
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What exactly is going to change about this Titans offense? They remain one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, as evidenced by their 50% neutral-game-script-run rate.
In terms of offensive weapons, aside from Henry, Ryan Tannehill is working with Treylon Burks and a bunch of guys that probably shouldn’t be starting.
Even if the Titans are bad and the team turns to Will Levis, this offense is still going to run through Henry. While there are concerns surrounding Henry’s performance in wins and losses, especially if the Titans are bad, he assuaged some of those concerns last season, which largely felt like noise to begin with anyway.
From 2019-2021, Henry averaged 24.8 ppg in wins and 13.6 ppg in losses. Last season, Henry posted games of 23.5, 14.7, 20.5, 26.3, and 18.6 in five of the Titans’ eight losses in which he played.
After opening Henry relatively low in my rankings, I bumped him up all the way to RB7, slightly above consensus.
In my projections, I have Henry running it 365 times for 1,569 yards and 13.6 touchdowns, plus 32 receptions for 304 yards and 1.7 touchdowns. That came out to 18.2 ppg and an overall RB4 finish. Suffice it to say I expect the King to remain on top for at least one more year.
