Calling all bettors! The post-Andrew Luck era has not been kind to the Indianapolis Colts, who are seemingly one “good” quarterback away from Super Bowl contention each season. How dramatically might they improve in 2023? And more pressingly, how will free agency and the upcoming NFL draft impact their title hopes? The following betting odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl 58 Odds and Futures
Last February’s early odds for Super Bowl 57 offered clues on what sportsbooks were thinking and how that wove into the thinking of the broader betting market.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs were the favorite (+650 odds) to this year’s Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills were No. 2. Not too shabby as far as year-long predictions go.
But the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers were Nos. 3 and 4, respectively — though, in fairness, Davante Adams’ status in Green Bay remained unclear at that point. The Tennessee Titans (No. 9) and Denver Broncos (No. 10) clearly underwhelmed. The Eagles weren’t even in the top third.
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The Carson Wentz-led Colts weren’t on the radar. But after supposedly “upgrading” at QB by acquiring Matt Ryan, Indy jumped to No. 12 with respectable +2240 odds of winning Super Bowl 57. Of course, Ryan turned out not to be an upgrade, and the 2023 Colts now seem further away from a title.
And that’s not solely my opinion. Oddsmakers have given them the third-worst odds (+15000) of winning Super Bowl 58. That’s quite a drop.
As we assess if bettors should lean into these odds, let’s examine a few key takeaways from the Colts’ 2022 campaign.
Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., and Other 2022 Season Takeaways
To reach the playoffs in 2021, Indy merely needed to defeat the lowly Jaguars. We know what happened next.
To reach the playoffs in 2022, they needed a better QB. Yes, easier said than done, as always. But Ryan played the worst football of his career with a team that didn’t need him to do much more than manage the offense. Instead, he compiled 15 touchdowns and 18 turnovers. As a starter, he lost three painfully winnable games to the Titans, Steelers, and Eagles, and then blew the biggest lead in NFL history to the Vikings.
Tack on an ugly tie to Houston in Week 1, and a one-point loss to Houston in Week 18 with backup Sam Ehlinger at the helm, and we can see how a half-decent NFL starting QB could have steered the Colts to a 9-8 record and potential postseason berth.
This is important in understanding the 2022 Colts. Because they weren’t as bad as their 4-12-1 record suggests. Jonathan Taylor quietly excelled, even if his 4.5 yards per carry suggest a regression from his breakout 2021 campaign. Taylor led all RBs with one broken tackle per 8.0 carries.
MORE: Tennessee Titans Super Bowl Odds
Taylor missed six games, plus almost the entire Vikings debacle. In those seven contests, Indy was 2-5. Yes, they missed him … terribly. A returning Taylor in 2023 is critically important in their quest for respectability, if not a shot at the playoffs.
The receiving corps is all untapped potential. We don’t yet know how good Michael Pittman Jr. can be with a good quarterback. The same goes for 2022 rookies Alec Pierce and Jelani Woods, as well as the underrated Parris Campbell. This corps is good enough to collect 4,000+ yards, with Pittman ascending to top-12 WR status.
Meanwhile, their defense yielded 3.6 more points per game than the year before. Not horrible, except defensive prowess is relative. Those extra 3.6 points knocked them down from the ninth-best defense in 2021 to the 28th-best in 2022. Not good.
Their run defense and pass defense actually improved slightly from the year before, with respect to yards surrendered. But while they were No. 2 in takeaways in 2021, they fell to 18th in 2022. And because Ryan struggled to hold onto the ball, he put more pressure on the defense. It was a vicious cycle that led continuously to poor defensive field position and too many opposing scoring opportunities.
2023 Offseason Moves
Again, the Colts have been searching for a highly capable QB for four years. They’ve fallen short each time, although a post-prime Philip Rivers came closest. This offseason, they need to decide whether they’re all in on 2023, or if they’re prepared to partially rebuild around Taylor and a budding receiving corps on offense, as well as a still capable defense, as they look to 2024 or 2025.
MORE: Indianapolis Colts Offseason Preview
Their abysmal Super Bowl 58 odds suggest the latter strategy. But I’m not abandoning the possibility that they’ll commit to the former. It begins with a concerted effort to land a top-20 QB. If they can achieve this, then they’ll be one of the best longshots in the league.
NFL Free Agency
In the coming weeks, we’ll update this section with breaking news on key Colts arrivals and departures through free agency and trades, how it impacts their Super Bowl odds, and how it might inform our decision to bet on them to somehow win it all.
NFL Draft
In early May, we’ll update this section on key Colts draft picks and UDFA signings, with an eye toward any instant-impact players who could help catapult them into Super Bowl consideration.
