A door has opened up for Josh Downs to be a weekly option in fantasy football lineups, and the fourth-year receiver has shown glimpses of being capable of walking through it. The QB position isn’t a strength in Indianapolis, but is it possible that Downs can provide great bang-for-buck production anyway?
Should You Draft Josh Downs in Fantasy Football?
I don’t want to be overly dramatic, but this is why we play fantasy football.
Michael Pittman may be seven inches taller than Downs, but his departure for the Steel City opens up a role that the undersized slot machine can fill in his fourth season, allowing him to become a high-floor asset in PPR settings. Or maybe not.
Situations like this are the ones that reward managers who are willing to work. The raw size difference would leave many to think that Pittman’s absence impacts Alec Pierce in a more significant way, and his massive deal this offseason only fuels that general belief.
But that’s lazy.
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Despite his height, Pittman has averaged a tick over 10 yards per catch since 2022 and is coming off his most involved season out of the slot. He’s nothing like Downs in a physical sense, but his vacated responsibilities figure to fall at the feet of the former third-round selection, and we have to be ready to pounce.
Pierce did enough to prove to the franchise that he’s an offensive cornerstone, though I think there’s a chance we are putting the cart before the horse with him, which clears a path for consistent volume to flow through Downs.
We know that Pierce is exceptional at what he does (career: 18.7 yards per catch and 29.5 yards per touchdown reception), but we’ve yet to see him show much route versatility. His role is valuable, don’t get me wrong, but it can only be maximized if defenses are worried about getting gashed in the middle of the field.
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Enter Downs. For his career, he’s put 15.4 PPR points on the board per game when earning at least nine looks, and I think we can agree that his opportunity equity is as high as it’s ever been. Tyler Warren is going to get plenty of steam, and he deserves it, but in an offense that lacks a rock-solid option at quarterback, can you ever have too many weapons working those underneath routes to stay ahead of the chains?
Downs has been targeted on 25% of his career routes run in the red zone, a strength that I think will surprise most. That rate was in the Ja’Marr Chase/CeeDee Lamb tier a season ago, and while Downs wins in different ways than they do, fantasy is a stats game, not a “how you get them” game.
If he can continue to win on those valuable routes at a high level, and his involvement in those sets spikes as expected with Pittman a Steeler, it’s not hard to see Year 4 for Downs being one to remember.
Downs’ Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
This is a tricky situation. Downs’ rookie deal is up after this season, and with the team inking Pierce to a nine-figure contract this offseason, it’s fair to wonder if this is his long-term home.
The QB situation remains unsettled at best, so what is the path to his return? If he impresses with more responsibilities this season, he could well price the Colts out of retaining him, and if he doesn’t show much growth (career: 774 yards per 17 games), maybe they look in a different direction.
I think Downs is better than the public seems to give him credit for, which lands me on the more bullish side of this profile, but even I have to admit that there is risk in betting on a 5’9”, 171-pound receiver with high levels of confidence.
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That said, if you’re looking to pick up shares, I think now is the time. Not only is this poised to be the greatest role of his career, but this could be a small-swing, big-win situation. If we are right on Downs this season and he approaches 100 catches and/or 1,000 yards, his price goes up on the free agent market—and if that happens, there’s a chance a stable, win-now team brings him aboard.
Dynasty managers are sometimes forced to play chess. If that series of events plays out and he’s with the Bucs, Patriots, or Seahawks in 12 months, you’re swimming in value based on his current asking price.
There’s certainly risk to consider, but if you’re above market on him this season, I think you owe it to yourself to pick up shares in dynasty, with the understanding that if you have him scouted right for 2026, you could be benefiting for the next handful of years at a very reasonable cost.
