If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this exciting Dallas Cowboys vs. Indianapolis Colts Week 13 matchup on Sunday Night Football, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Cowboys vs. Colts Player Prop Bets To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
These recommended bets assume the Cowboys will win by a rough score of 30-10. This is the healthiest Dallas has been since last season. They’ve averaged 36 points in their last four contests. The Colts haven’t surrendered more than 27 in any game this season. I believe Dallas will wind up somewhere in between.
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Meanwhile, Indianapolis has continued its downward spiral, going 4-9-1 since January. They’ve tried out four full-time starting quarterbacks since Andrew Luck retired in the run-up to the 2019 season.
Philip Rivers (2020) was arguably the best of the bunch, though “best” might be misleading. He was 28th in air yards per completion that year, while his receivers made sure he was No. 2 in yards after the catch.
The point is, the Colts have scuffled for four seasons, and that has to be taking a toll these days. It’s like a bad movie: celebrated QB Matt Ryan flops, is pushed aside for Sam Ehlinger, the coach is fired, someone who’s never coached in college or the pros takes his place, and then Ryan returns to the helm, looking worse than ever.
A tale as old as time.
These guys are professionals, of course. They’ll go out there and work their butts off. But the following props assume all their hard work doesn’t amount to much.
Dak Prescott Player Props
The Colts are giving up the fifth-fewest passing yards per contest. So is this a trap game for Dak Prescott?
Not a chance. (Well, there’s always a chance, but . . .) Indy opposing QBs have included Ryan Tannehill (twice), Davis Mills, and Russell Wilson. They’ve also faced the hit-or-miss Trevor Lawrence twice, as well as rookie Kenny Pickett.
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Although they held Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts in check, the Colts’ overall defensive body of work can’t yet be fully evaluated. They’ve picked off only four passes and are yielding the fourth-highest QB completion percentage.
Prescott has everything he needs to meet or exceed 250 passing yards and two touchdowns.
- Passing yards under 248.5
(-120) — BetMGM - Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(-135) — DraftKings - Interceptions under 0.5
(-175) — DraftKings
CeeDee Lamb Player Props
If I believed this game would be close, I’d be more bullish about CeeDee Lamb’s targets. He’s averaging only 8.8 targets per game since Prescott’s Week 7 return. But notably, in three comfortable wins during this stretch (18+ point margin of victory), he’s averaged only six targets.
In the other two contests, which weren’t decided until late, Lamb averaged 13 targets.
Small sample size, yet also applicable when considering the Cowboys’ brutal injury history the past three seasons. Simply put, they haven’t wanted to put their No. 1 wideout in harm’s way up three touchdowns in the third quarter.
Assuming the outcome isn’t in much doubt after about 40 game minutes, I’d expect Lamb to play decoy the rest of the way, translating into a roughly 5-80 receiving line.
- Receptions under 5.5
(+105) — DraftKings - Receiving yards over 71.5
(-115) — DraftKings
Matt Ryan Player Props
Will Ryan take snaps on the Colts’ final drive tonight? Given his struggles and the near certainty that Indy will miss the playoffs, what might head coach Jeff Saturday do with the team’s bye week looming? Might he make Nick Foles active for this one, signaling that Ryan will be on a short leash?
Whatever happens, this might be Ryan’s final start in a Colts uniform, and perhaps the final start of his career. He has a significantly improved receiving corps compared to last year, yet has consistently underperformed his immediate predecessor, the much-maligned Carson Wentz.
Dallas has surrendered the fewest passing yards per game. They’re also No. 1 with 45 sacks. If Ryan’s prop line were 140 passing yards, I’d still probably bet under.
- Passing yards under 223.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Passing touchdowns under 1.5
(-210) — BetMGM
