The Philadelphia Eagles’ first loss of the season, which came two weeks ago, and the team’s narrow escape from the reeling Indianapolis Colts have some on edge about whether the Eagles have lost their edge.
My Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles prediction can put the City of Brotherly Love at ease. If you’re a bettor without a natural rooting preference, the Packers vs. Eagles odds give us a fun game to play with, as we can find value with both teams in this one. This game will come down to best-on-best in terms of which side of the ball for each team is trending in the right direction.
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Prediction and Odds | Week 12
- Spread: Packers +6.5
- Moneyline: Eagles -305
- Over/Under: Under 46.5**NOTE: The Behavior Bets model predicted a final score totaling under 46.5 points. I Personally did not place a bet on this due to the margin between the prediction and the over/under of 46.5 being less than my personal threshold.
Packers vs. Eagles Prediction
The Behavior Bets sports betting model has had continued success as we begin to close out November. According to the tracking stats on what I personally consider to be the best bet tracking app on the market, Pikkit, I have a record of 40-18-1 with a 35.1 unit profit*. This Green Bay vs. Philadelphia prediction involves two teams with data and trends very friendly to the model’s key metrics.
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After perusing the landscape here, it seems pretty clear that this game may come down to whether or not the Eagles can get back on track on offense. Week over week, heading into their Week 7 bye, they were losing steam in being able to score points. In fact, they had a 28% decay rate, or better said, they were decelerating in scoring points week over week. They came out of the bye week and scored their second-highest point total of the season.
Since then? They have scored fewer points than the week prior for four consecutive weeks. In the four games after the bye, their deceleration problem got worse, now at a 70% decay rate following their lowest-scoring output of the season. In a vacuum, not taking into account who they are playing, they should score only 21 points on Sunday night.
Their saving grace? They are going against a Packers defense that is seeing a 29% acceleration rate week over week in giving up points. Not the way you want to be trending on that side of the ball. Green Bay has given up over 20 points in 72% of their games this season.
On a points-per-game basis, they haven’t necessarily been dreadful, averaging giving up 21 points. Much of that, though, can be credited to their early season success in Weeks 2 and 3, where they gave up only 10 and 12 points, respectively, to a pre-explosion Justin Fields and a half-retired Tom Brady.
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This defense is nearly a lock to give up a point total in the mid-twenties each and every week. Given who the Packers are playing and the rate they are accelerating, I think they come in right about that and give up 23 points in this one.
Unlike their defense, the Packers’ offense is actually trending in the right direction, albeit, slightly. They are seeing 13% growth in the acceleration of scoring points week to week. Their biggest challenge has been consistency. They have a bounce rate of x3.1. Almost every single week, their scores have bounced around from single digits, then to the twenties, then to the teens, then to the thirties, then back to the teens, and so on.
They haven’t been able to find an identity and stick to it, despite the recent emergence of rookie Christian Watson. Even in his individual two-game breakout, the Packers scored 31 points, and then 17 points. It is that inconsistency that dooms Green Bay in this one.
The Eagles’ defense has been pretty steady this season. Averaging only 16.33 points surrendered each game, they have been the unsung hero of their team. They have given up two 30-point games this year, including two weeks ago, but 70% of their games have seen under 20 points allowed. 20% have seen under 10 points.
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While the Packers’ offense has been getting slightly better week over week, this defense should be well-equipped to handle it. The Packers’ offense is averaging just about the same number of points as the Eagles give up – not a juggernaut by any stretch that should challenge a scoring outlier for Philly.
In a game like this, when you have worst-on-worst and best-on-best (in terms of current trends) facing off, you typically get a closer game. Despite their different records, behaviorally, these two teams are not so far apart from one another. The Behavior Bets model predicts a close game. A victory for Philly, and a cover for Green Bay.
Packers vs. Eagles Prediction: Packers 20, Eagles 23
