If you’re making Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL DFS picks for Thursday Night Football in Week 10, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Panthers Considerations
The allure and challenge in devising a DFS strategy for this game concerns what happened when these teams last met two weeks ago. Four Panthers and five Falcons scored 12+ DFS points each, with three topping 22 points. If you had Marcus Mariota, DJ Moore, and Terrace Marshall Jr. in your lineup, you were set.
So conventional wisdom might suggest this could be another high-scoring game. As a result, we probably can’t skate by with a kicker, or even with a high-priced player with, say, a realistic 15-point cap.
MORE: NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 10
Even taking Carolina’s cheap D/ST could be risky. Their subdued production has been propped up by three D/ST touchdowns. This unit simply gives up too many points and doesn’t pressure QBs enough (only 14 sacks) to garner our attention.
We need blowup potential.
Atlanta’s defense has surrendered 2,700 passing yards through nine games, or an average of 300 per contest. What other recent franchises have yielded 300+ passing yards per game in a season? None that I’ve found. Researched each year since 1970. The 2015 Giants were close, and the Packers were even closer.
So the key takeaway is that the Falcons’ pass defense might be the worst in NFL history. And when crafting our DFS strategy, we have to embrace this fact — the high probability that Carolina will continue to expose their opponent’s biggest weakness.
Falcons Considerations
Like Carolina, Atlanta’s D/ST has three touchdowns, and they’re also tied for the second-fewest sacks (12). Starting their D/ST in this DFS slate would require some hope that they perform better than ever. I’m not banking on that.
The Panthers have yielded 24+ points in five of their last six games. We might anticipate multiple touchdowns (as many as four or five) for a Falcons offense that’s ninth in the league in scoring, and which hung 37 points on these same Panthers two weeks ago. As a result, I’d rather go big with potential 18+ point options than hope for 10+ from a cheaper Younghoe Koo.
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The backfield gets a little more confusing with Cordarrelle Patterson back. Note that Caleb Huntley hasn’t been targeted all season. He caught only one pass his senior year at Ball State. This matters because DFS upside often hinges on receptions and receiving yards. If we need Huntley to score to be useful, can we afford to take a chance on him versus Patterson and/or Tyler Allgeier?
And the Falcons’ passing game is a complete crapshoot. Marcus Mariota’s rushing yards are terrific, but not enough to compensate for a mixed-bag aerial attack. We could chase points with Damiere Byrd (3-67-1 receiving line against the Panthers). Or we could play it “safe” with one of his more expensive, more talented receivers — despite their inconsistencies.
Top NFL DFS Picks for TNF
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: WR DJ Moore, Panthers ($13,800)
Moore is one of two Panthers with realistic 25+ point potential. I’ve already discussed Atlanta’s historically bad pass defense. This is a revenge game for Carolina on a national stage. I’m betting on a 7-115-1 line for Moore, earning his elevation to Captain.
Flex: WR Terrace Marshall Jr., Panthers ($8,400)
Last year, the Panthers drafted Marshall in the second round, Tommy Tremble in the third, and Chuba Hubbard in the fourth. The verdict’s still out on whether these three can form a nucleus for future success. But in the past couple of weeks, there have been clear sparks, and Marshall arguably has the highest long-term ceiling — and most upside tonight.
Flex: RB D’Onta Foreman, Panthers ($7,800)
A bit risky with Hubbard returning and Raheem Blackshear impressing in the receiving game. But I believe Foreman is still the most capable RB in this backfield. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t lead this group tonight.
Flex: TE Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($7,000)
This DFS lineup assumes Carolina will win and that Mariota will need to throw deep into the fourth quarter. Kyle Pitts has double the targets and 2.5x the receiving yards when trailing versus when leading. He should remain a key cog in this offense despite Mariota’s limitations.
Flex: RB Tyler Allgeier, Falcons ($6,200)
Patterson costs an astounding $11,800, probably because he scored twice last week. But Allgeier ran better. I’d rather pay roughly half the price for someone with comparable upside.
Flex: RB Chuba Hubbard, Panthers ($5,800)
If Foreman dominates touches in a comfortable victory, then we might see Hubbard clean up in the second half. Win-win. Or Hubbard might go toe-to-toe with Foreman in his return to the field. Either way, this is a hedge worth making in a backfield with a combined 30+ point potential.
