If you’re planning to bet on Week 9 NFL player props for Thursday Night Football’s eye-catching Houston Texans vs. Philadelphia Eagles matchup, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Texans vs. Eagles Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Davis Mills Player Props
Leading off with the home team, as usual. And if you’re the kind of person who says “per usual” instead of “as usual,” then I’ve got only one thing to tell you: You’re welcome here anytime.
Another person who’s welcome here anytime is Davis Mills. My Spidey sense tells me he’s too busy preparing for tonight’s game to read through his prop lines. I know what that’s like. I was too busy preparing for my preseason fantasy draft to remember to bathe.
So yeah, multi-tasking’s tough.
Mills will need to do a lot of multi-tasking tonight, fending off elite Eagles defenders while trying to throw around and over (and under? maybe not under . . .) other Eagles defenders.
MORE: Early NFL Week 9 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
If we believe he’ll fall behind early and still be in the game late, then we might expect Mills to exceed prop expectations. However, I’m not comfortable betting on a QB facing one of the best pass defenses in the league: fewest passing yards given up, second-lowest opposing QB fantasy points per game, tied for second with 10 interceptions, etc.
The best hope for Mills could be an active backfield that’s averaged 7.1 receptions per game. In fact, Houston’s RBs are the sixth-most targeted in the NFL. And it makes sense given the Texans’ challenges at wideout and tight end — or as some might say, Mills’ challenges getting his receivers the ball.
Statistically, the Eagles’ defense has been a bit worse than average in this area. But in fairness, Philadelphia is accustomed to facing better passing attacks. If they consistently stack the box, daring Mills to beat them with accurate, deeper passes, then it’s hard to envision Houston’s starting QB sustaining enough drives to meet key passing targets.
- Passing completions under 21.5
(-114) — FanDuel - Passing yards under 229.5
(-110) — FanDuel - Passing TDs under 1.5
(-162) — FanDuel - Interceptions under 0.5
(-115) — DraftKings
Dameon Pierce Player Props
See above, mostly. Based on where I think this game is headed and the most realistic passing numbers, I’m betting on Pierce to shine (relatively speaking) in the receiving game. In the first two quarters, at minimum, Houston probably will try different things to get Philly’s defense off balance.
In other words, I’m not expecting the second drive to begin with a short Pierce run, then another short Pierce run. Then a throw on third down. Mills is pretty immobile, so the creativity needs to come through the air.
That might mean a direct snap to Pierce or Rex Burkhead on an option play. Burkhead’s already attempted a pass this season. He also attempted one last season.
Pierce should clear his receiving prop lines. But on the rushing side, I’m not convinced that Houston can stay with the run long enough to keep Pierce engaged on the ground.
- Rushing attempts under 16.5
(-110) — DraftKings
- Rushing yards under 72.5
(-110) — FanDuel - Receptions over 2.5
(EVEN) — BetMGM
- Receiving yards over 14.5
(-110) — FanDuel
Jalen Hurts Player Props
Last weekend on this page, I warned that Jalen Hurts was on pace to easily break Lamar Jackson’s record for most rushing attempts in a season by a quarterback. I argued that Eagles coaches surely didn’t want Hurts to break the record if it significantly increased the risk of injury — especially for an undefeated team with its eyes on another Super Bowl.
MORE: NFL Super Bowl Odds 2023
On Sunday, Hurts rushed only twice for 10 yards — not because it was a blowout (Pittsburgh was down by two touchdowns or less for most of the game), but because (I believe) he’s picking his moments a bit more. They’ve reached a relatively soft part of their schedule. Yes, win. Whatever it takes, win. But in Week 9, he shouldn’t need to run more than a handful of times.
- Rushing attempts under 9.5
(-145) — DraftKings
- Rushing yards under 48.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Passing completions under 19.5
(-125) — DraftKings
- Passing yards under 233.5
(-110) — FanDuel - Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(+114) — FanDuel
- Interceptions under 0.5
(-125) — DraftKings
DeVonta Smith Player Props
Since posting a donut in Week 1, DeVonta Smith has reeled in 5+ catches in five of six contests, as well as 80+ yards in three of six. I still believe he’s a top-20 fantasy WR — or will be by the end of this season.
Despite some statistical inconsistencies, I’m very comfortable betting the overs on Smith, whose prop lines assume either Hurts will struggle to move the ball (unlikely), or A.J. Brown will dominate yet again (football doesn’t generally work that way). The Eagles have a very balanced attack. Smith will get his touches most weeks, and he’ll dominate some weeks.
Against an improved-but-still-beatable Texans pass defense that can’t stop everything Philly will throw at them, this is not a Mandalorian-style army of one. Everyone gets their turn. I expect Smith to tally 6+ catches for 70+ yards and a score.
This is the way.
- Receiving yards over 52.5
(-115) — DraftKings
A.J. Brown Player Props
Oh, and Brown should be good, too.
- Receptions over 4.5
(-155) — BetMGM - Receiving yards over 68.5
(-115) — DraftKings
Eagles D/ST Player Props
Close your eyes for a moment. Now open them to keep reading.
There’s 3:41 left in tonight’s game. Philly’s up 31-17. Houston has the ball at their own 25, beginning what will be a furious march downfield to score, and then hopefully, get the ball back with a chance to tie or win.
Pierce is in as a blocker. It’s Mills Time. First throw: incomplete. Second throw: picked off by Darius Slay, who cut in front of his man and now has a clear path to the end zone.
You jump up and down like a tourist in the back of a tour bus maneuvering down the Andes. Because you bet on the Eagles D/ST to score the final touchdown of the game.
I’m not a big fan of betting on first or last touchdowns. Last Thursday, I recommended a first-TD bet for Leonard Fournette at +700 odds, and he came through. My research suggested the odds were roughly 2-1. That made the wager worthwhile.
The Eagles are No. 1 in the NFL with 2.3 takeaways per game. A desperate Texans squad playing catch-up late presents the ideal opportunity to capitalize on a mistake.
- Last touchdown of the game
(+2500) — DraftKings
