If you’re playing a New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears NFL DFS lineup for Monday Night Football in Week 7, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Patriots Considerations
Mac Jones is poised to re-take the field for the first time in four weeks. Will it matter? Based on how well rookie Bailey Zappe played in relief, it’s hard to say. Jones has three TDs and six turnovers in three games.
If he continues to struggle, could he get pulled mid-game? The Patriots’ postseason hopes are a little on the thin side. They’re tied for last in the AFC East. If we start Jones in DFS, we have to trust that he cannot only make it through the game without getting re-injured but play well enough to leave no doubt that he’s the starter.
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Elsewhere, we have to wonder how Rhamondre Stevenson will fare with Damien Harris back in uniform. Against a beatable Bears run defense, perhaps both can thrive by continuing to split touches. But they’ll be expensive DFS options.
And the receiving corps is more muddled than ever, as Nelson Agholor nears his return, while rookie Tyquan Thornton keeps pushing for more playing time. This unit can’t realistically feed more than a couple of receivers per game, but we’ll have at least four capable options to choose from.
Bears Considerations
Entering last week, there were a few DFS near-certainties: Justin Fields was expensive with a low ceiling, Darnell Mooney was moderately expensive with a low ceiling, and David Montgomery was expensive with a low ceiling. And to clarify, by “low ceiling,” I mean around 18 DFS points.
Sure, Fields picked up 19.4 in Week 6, but you get the picture. In DFS competitions, we’re looking for guys with 30+ point upside. Chicago simply doesn’t have anyone who comes close.
MORE: Patriots vs. Bears Player Props for Monday Night Football
So if we’re not going to spend big for a modest output, who should we invest in? Perhaps Dante Pettis, although that assumes he can replicate last week’s 51-yard TD reception, which accounted for 66% of his fantasy production since Week 2.
And yet, who else can we trust? This is the quandary with the Bears in DFS, especially in a tough road matchup against New England. If we believe the Patriots will handle Chicago the way they took care of a better Detroit team two weeks ago (29-0 victory) and an arguably better Cleveland squad last week (38-15 victory), then what hope do any Bears playmakers have?
Top NFL DFS Lineup for Monday Night Football
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: D/ST Patriots ($8,400)
This is an ideal home matchup for a defense that’s just starting to play to its potential. When the Patriots jump out to a firm lead by halftime, Justin Fields will need to throw often — that’s exactly what this defense wants to feast on.
Flex: QB Mac Jones, Patriots ($9,800)
By going cheap at Captain, we can load up on high-priced talent, beginning with Jones. If he has a setback, then we can slot in Zappe ($9,400) without making a fuss. I like Jones cracking 14 points, and in what could be a pretty run-heavy contest for New England, 14+ points should make Jones worth it.
Flex: RB Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($10,800)
Of course. No team has been run on more than the Bears, which are yielding a healthy 4.8 yards per carry and nine rushing scores. Stevenson should get enough work to provide value, even at his steep price.
Flex: RB Damien Harris, Patriots ($8,400)
How much can we trust Harris? My best answer is “enough.” He’s returning from an injury and coming back to an uncertain role, but he’s playing the Bears. Figure 10+ touches and a decent chance at finding the end zone. Worst case, he’s a great backfield hedge if you’re competing in 50/50 DFS contests.
Flex: WR Tyquan Thornton, Patriots ($6,600)
Assuming this is a comfortable victory, it would be a great opportunity to keep feeding the Patriots’ rookie receiver. Thornton is still playing catch-up after getting hurt before the season. This will mark only his third NFL game. He should get enough looks to make him worth the investment.
Flex: WR Dante Pettis, Bears ($5,200)
I tried to make this lineup work by replacing Pettis with Fields, but that would force us to roll with Velus Jones Jr. or Trestan Ebner instead of Thornton. I don’t see the net positive. If Fields flops, then Pettis might flop — but for half the price. Realistically, he’ll snag at least a couple of passes for 27 yards. As long as our Patriots players perform well, that might be enough to win big.
