If you’re playing a Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 7, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Commanders Considerations
The Taylor Heinicke Era re-begins! The surest sign that a rookie QB isn’t ready is when a team still fighting for a playoff spot goes with a known commodity instead. Sam Howell will have to wait. Heinicke probably will be a major fade in DFS, because in most competitions, starting QBs are pretty pricey.
What does Heinicke’s return mean for Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel? Too soon to know, especially against the Packers’ potent pass defense, which is yielding the fourth-fewest QB fantasy points per game (as well as the fewest passing yards per game). It might not make sense to spend big DFS money on a starting Washington wideout.
[the_ad_group id=”65008″]
That might leave us with Logan Thomas if he’s healthy and affordable, or else the ultra-cheap Cole Turner, who I recommended as the ultimate flier last weekend.
Realistically, Heinicke will pepper his backfield with targets. So, can we trust any Washington RB? Not yet, at least based on their DFS pricing and capped ceilings. But “trust” and “bet on” are two different concepts. I’d bet that at least one Commanders RB will get 3+ receptions — and at least one (probably that one) will be worth starting. The question is, who?
Packers Considerations
How much will Green Bay feed Aaron Jones? AJ Dillon isn’t getting it done. The passing game is a minor mess with occasional sparks. For the Packers to win, they need to deploy Jones early and often. He’s my favorite DFS play in this contest, regardless of his steep price.
Back to the passing game. The Commanders have a bottom-tier pass defense, giving up the eighth-most QB fantasy points per game. One of those games was against Chicago’s inefficient aerial attack. Before that, they faced Tennessee. Two contests before that, it was Cooper Rush’s Cowboys.
MORE: Top Commanders vs. Packers Player Props
So yeah, we can envision at least a small bounce-back from Aaron Rodgers, particularly if he feeds Jones through the air. We also cannot ignore Robert Tonyan’s 12 targets this past Sunday. If he’s still fairly cheap, we should probably pounce, even if a 4-40 receiving line is more realistic this week.
That leaves Romeo Doubs and Allen Lazard as major question marks. If we buy into Rodgers, we’ll need to invest in at least one of his top wideouts. “Which one?” is a popular fantasy and DFS question when debating two comparable players at the same position from the same team. At the moment, Lazard has an ever-so-slight edge.
Top DFS Lineup for Commanders vs. Packers
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
As referenced above, win or lose, there’s no one I want in this DFS lineup more than Jones. Green Bay began this season in win-now mode with an aging Aaron Rodgers. At 3-3, they’re in what I like to call “winner-nower” mode. Actually, after seeing that phrase on my screen, I’m tired of “winner-nower.” Let’s use my new favorite phrase, “even more win-now-ish.”
Jones ($10,400 normally, $15,600 as Captain) belongs in our Captain slot. If he doesn’t get at least 20 touches, I’m betting it means they’ll trade him by next week. Yes, I’m now on the record as either crazy or “even more crazy-ish.”
Let’s add Dillon ($5,800), Doubs (8,000), and Tonyan ($6,200). Going with Doubs instead of Lazard because the latter is $2,000 pricier. We could swap those two and then downgrade Dillon or Tonyan, but I don’t see obvious value in that approach.
The two remaining slots go to Brian Robinson ($7,400) and Antonio Gibson ($7,000). My thinking is that the team already knows what they have in J.D. McKissic ($4,800). The veteran’s usage has dwindled from 11 touches to five to two since Week 4. Assuming Heinicke can’t get much going against Green Bay’s terrific pass defense, I’m anticipating 7+ dump-offs to his backfield.
