If you’re playing a Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texans DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 7, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Raiders Considerations
As we await word in November on Davante Adams’ possible suspension, the Raiders’ season couldn’t have gone much worse. With faint, fading playoff hopes at 1-4, they must prevail against one of the league’s least-effective teams. I believe they’ll use this opportunity to re-ignite their offense and begin their slow march back to .500.
The opponent couldn’t be more favorable. That’s not to say the Texans are pushovers on defense. Yes, they’re yielding a robust 5.1 yards per carry. But they’ve been at least middling against the pass, giving up plenty of yards while limiting opponents to just under one aerial TD per game. Not bad.
So we have to weigh the Raiders’ array of firepower against a defense that’s yielding (respectably) the 13th-fewest points per contest. Which Vegas playmakers will step up? Is Josh Jacobs an automatic start? And should we go all in on Adams, or would it be more effective to snag some combination of the notably cheaper Hunter Renfrow or Mack Hollins, if healthy?
Texans Considerations
For Houston, can we trust anyone besides Dameon Pierce? Probably not. He’s the only Texan we can safely start in DFS. Everyone else is a flier.
Of course, it’s a little more complicated than that because we have to factor in the probability that the Raiders will score 26+ points while Houston might not muster more than their usual 17. Pierce will be pricey. So will Brandin Cooks. Nico Collins? Possibly.
MORE: Top Raiders vs. Texans Player Props
But if we go top-heavy, then we’ll need at least one inexpensive flier and possibly two. That’s when TD-dependent options like Rex Burkhead and Chris Moore come into focus. We don’t want to spend $8,000+ on a 10-point player. It’s better to spend $1,500 on a three-point player and then grab higher-ceiling options elsewhere.
Top DFS Lineup for Raiders vs. Texans
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
A key question is where we are getting near-automatic points. That falls to three players: Jacobs ($11,200 normally, $16,800 as Captain) in our Captain slot, as well as Adams ($12,000) and Pierce ($10,600).
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Next up, Foster Moreau ($2,000). He’s a proven value play when Waller sits. And with our final two spots, we could opt for each team’s kicker, or with essentially the same funds, we could secure the higher-ceiling Hollins ($6,800) along with Chris Moore ($1,200).
Earlier this week, I had set up a contingency plan. If Waller was inactive, then we’d go Moreau, Daniel Carlson ($4,000), and Ka’imi Fairbairn ($3,800). This should be a pretty high-scoring game, with each team getting at least two field-goal attempts. Not a bad haul, especially if Moreau gets his usual workload as a spot starter.
Given the Waller news, I’m sticking with that plan. While Hollins and Moore might combine for as many as 18 points, Carlson and Fairbairn are safer and (in all likelihood) higher upside.
