Are you searching for an ideal Week 7 pick for your NFL survivor pool? Winging it usually doesn’t get the job done. So, how should we strategize with an eye toward the rest of the season? Let’s talk survivor pool NFL betting strategy and optimal team picks.
NFL Week 7 Survivor Pool
Picking one team that is a virtual certainty to win each week sounds easy in theory. However, most NFL survivor pool rules dictate that you can’t select the same team twice.
Sometimes it’s best to lock in a nearly guaranteed win. Other times it’s better to take a chance to preserve safer options for later. Here’s my favorite Week 7 pick (with context).
Play It Safe or Bold?
When picking a team, we need to consider short- and long-term strategies and ramifications. The deeper we get into the season, the more our competition dwindles — sometimes because they lost going bold, and sometimes because they lost while seemingly playing it safe.
Last week, three more road underdogs prevailed, bringing the season total to 22, or one every 4.3 games. Considering many games feature a favored home team, this appears to be a highly unusual amount of road upsets. In fact, some of your opponents might have lost because they took the Packers over the Jets or the Ravens over the Giants.
But we can’t always account for these upsets. It’s all about playing the percentages. And as we get further along, and as bye weeks limit our options, we need to stay focused on what works.
Home-Field Advantage?
And yes, although the Ravens and Packers lost, that doesn’t mean we shy away from favored home teams. Last week, I advised readers to take the Rams over the dysfunctional Panthers. Yes, the Rams are also somewhat dysfunctional, and their up-and-coming franchise RB (Cam Akers) apparently is on the outs. But they still far and away have a better offense and better defense than Carolina.
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Choosing a survivor team is like choosing teams in March Madness. Choosing all favorites generally yields better results than choosing all underdogs. That said, there are a healthy dose of upsets. So our job as fearless bettors is to maximize the probability of success. Home teams this year have won 53% of the time. Historically, that’s been a few percentage points higher, but it remains favorable.
Compelling Week 7 Survivor Plays
I’m eyeing three Week 7 home squads with solid chances at victory. There are pros and cons to each. Let’s check out the first two, and then wrap up with my go-for-broke recommendation.
The Raiders and Texans are facing off after their respective byes. Houston actually has a better record at 1-3-1, but the Raiders are favored for many good reasons, not just because they’re at home. Vegas’ four losses have been by five points or less. They’re better than their record and have had the misfortune of playing three tough road games, including against the Chargers and Chiefs.
MORE: Buy Low, Sell High Week 7
Houston remains a rebuilding team, anchored offensively by incredible rookie Dameon Pierce. But unlike the Raiders, they’re not a quick-strike team, ranking near the league’s bottom in yards per game while also ranking second to last in time of possession and third-down conversions. To put it mildly, the Texans’ passing game remains subpar.
The Raiders have enough firepower to get back in the win column. With no one easier on the schedule, it’s either play them now or don’t play them at all . . . unless the Chiefs have nothing to play for in Week 18 after locking down their playoff seed. In that scenario, the Raiders would be a great team to keep in our back pocket.
Or, we could consider the Bengals in a favorable contest versus the Falcons. A trap game? Possibly. Atlanta just upset San Francisco and owns a surprising 3-3 record. Also, I’d prefer to keep Cincy on standby until Week 9, when they’ll have the best matchup of the week at home against Carolina.
Patriots vs. Bears
Never count out the Patriots. For now at least. After starting 1-3, New England has reeled off two convincing wins and are headed toward a third despite operating with their third-string rookie QB and (in Week 6) only half of their high-impact backfield tandem.
New England is my favorite survivor pick this week for many reasons, including their improving defense and more dynamic passing attack. While Mac Jones remains the starter, we shouldn’t be surprised if head coach Bill Belichick is at least weighing whether to keep rolling Bailey Zappe, who tore up Cleveland’s defense on the road.
The Bears’ strength lies with their running game. While struggling earlier in the year, New England largely clamped down on Nick Chubb last week and the high-flying Jamaal Williams the week before. If David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert can’t get going — if Justin Fields has to win on the road with his arm — it could be a very long night.
I don’t see a realistic scenario where the Patriots lose this one. In fact, I’m picking them to win by 12+ points against a Bears defense giving up the second-most rushing yards. It’ll be another great evening for Rhamondre Stevenson and, if he returns, Damien Harris.
