Derrick Henry has been at risk of declining for the past three seasons. This year is no different. Coming off yet another efficient RB1 season where he looked as spry as ever, fantasy football managers are baking in some risk, but still spending premium draft capital on the Baltimore Ravens RB1. Is Henry a risky bet for 2026?
Should You Draft Ravens RB Derrick Henry in Fantasy Football?
Let’s start with the most important aspect of Henry’s profile. He’s 32 years old. We’ve seen plenty of running backs fall off a cliff as early as age 29. For many fantasy managers, we thought the same thing was happening to Henry.
From 2019-2022, Henry averaged at least 18.9 fantasy points per game in every season. In 2023, his age 29 season, that fell to 14.5 PPG. Naturally, that led to many believing Henry was declining. After all, his 2023 performance metrics indicated as much.
In 2024, Henry signed with the Ravens. Baltimore, being a vastly superior offense to the one Henry played on in Tennessee in 2023, the door was very much open to the apparent 2023 decline being more of a team issue than a Henry issue. Sure enough, it was.
Since joining the Ravens, Henry’s efficiency metrics have rebounded to career norms. He averaged over 5.0 yards per carry each of his two seasons in Baltimore.
READ MORE: 2026 Controversial Fantasy Football Running Back Depth Charts: Who To Draft In These Confusing Rooms
In 2024, Henry bounced back to 19.8 PPG, which was standard Henry production. Last year, however, he did appear to regress a bit, averaging only 16.4 PPG. Still RB1 numbers, but not what we come to expect from Henry.
Once again, we are faced with the same question of whether Father Time is coming for Henry. Since turning 29, Father Time has knocked on Henry’s door each season, and Henry gave him the same answer: “Not today.” Will that be the answer once again in 2026?
Henry’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
There’s no other way to say it: Henry is built different. He’s a unicorn. A throwback. Also one of one. There’s no one like him in the NFL today.
Outside of a Jones fracture that cost him half of the 2021 season, Henry hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season. His downhill power running style contributes to his ability to stay healthy. That’s not going anywhere.
Despite the “down” year by Henry’s standards, we don’t have any evidence that he’s beginning his decline. Henry had 21 rushes of 15+ yards, second in the league. He averaged 5.4 yards per touch, seventh in the league.
Obviously, the nonexistent target share has always been a problem, but it’s also never been a problem. The lack of receiving work caps Henry’s ceiling from being truly legendary, but his rushing efficiency and dominant goal-line prowess keep him as a mid-to-high RB1.
Last year’s minor dip can be attributed to the Ravens offense as a whole, similar to how Henry’s significant dip in 2023 was the fault of the Titans offense, not Henry himself. With Lamar Jackson back healthy and a new coaching staff, there’s no reason to think the Ravens won’t bounce back and once again be one of the best teams in football.
So, now that we’ve established Henry was still elite last season and the Ravens should be a top offense this year, is there any reason for concern? Unfortunately, yes. Did I mention Henry is 32 years old?
Since 2000, 13 RBs have averaged at least 14 PPG in an age-31 season or older. So, there is some precedent for an older back to produce at a moderate level. But we’re not drafting Henry for 14 PPG. And at age 32, it gets even worse. Only three RBs have averaged at least 14 PPG in an age-32 season or older.
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Obviously, the 2000s were a very different time. It should not come as a shock that nearly all of those running backs came from the 2000s. If we purely look at the past decade, here’s who we get. Again, these are RBs to average at least 14 PPG at age 31 or older:
- 2015 DeAngelo Williams 14.46 PPG (A little more than a decade ago, but including him)
- 2023 Raheem Mostert 17.85 PPG
- 2025 Derrick Henry 16.44 PPG
Now, the scary part. We know the threshold for RB1 production is roughly 16 PPG. Henry currently has an RB11 ADP, which means the expectation is that he should be right around that number. Here is a list of every running back since 2000 to average at least 16 PPG in their age-32 season or older.
Did I forget to answer the question above? No, I did not. That’s the answer. There aren’t any. What to make of this? That’s up to you.
Henry is the RB10 in our consensus rankings. We are not writing his football eulogy ahead of this season. He’s been defying the odds his entire career. The only thing that really suggests he can’t do it again is that no one else has. You shouldn’t reach for Henry, but if he’s the top player on the board in the second round, I’m not afraid.
Henry’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
Henry just may have another great season left in him, but he will lose this battle with Father Time. It’s a matter of when, not if. Tom Brady staved him off longer than anyone in history, but eventually, he was defeated as well.
The end could come fast. Henry could very well be a historical outlier in 2026, posting another RB1 season, and then completely crater in 2027.
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A running back at the point in his career where any year could be his last only has value to contending teams in dynasty. If you are rebuilding, there’s no reason to hold Henry for next year. Trade him to a contender for future assets.
If you are the contender, Henry is a great piece to add to your championship roster. Trade for him, assuming you’re only getting one season. He shouldn’t be overly expensive, given that he’s 32 years old. Just understand that, despite him being one of one, the odds he contributes beyond this season are incredibly low.
