If you’re making Chiefs vs. Chargers NFL DFS picks for Week 2 Thursday Night Football, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Chiefs vs. Chargers DFS Picks
Today we’re playing two FanDuel lineups, each of which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output (“MVP”), plus four Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Chiefs DFS considerations
Patrick Mahomes promised bettors and fantasy managers that this would be more of a spread-it-around passing attack, and he didn’t disappoint this past Sunday. While JuJu Smith-Schuster appears to be the co-#1 alongside veteran Travis Kelce, we can’t discount the fact that this was only one game.
Mecole Hardman earned a healthy six targets. Marquez Valdes-Scantling will remain involved, and rookie Skyy Moore could quickly get more involved as the year goes on. So I’m urging some caution before we go all in on Smith-Schuster.
The same is true for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. While never lacking in talent, we don’t yet know if he’ll be “the guy” in this backfield or if, once again, the Chiefs will supplement his workload with strong secondary options.
In this case, guys like Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. Edwards-Helaire probably won’t run as easily on the Chargers as on the Cardinals. He’s still a bit more TD-dependent than a typical top-14 RB.
Chargers DFS considerations
Will Keenan Allen play, and if so, how much? This question has to drive our thinking because the values of receivers like Joshua Palmer and DeAndre Carter will hinge on Allen’s projected usage. We might also wonder what this passing attack might look like without Allen.
The team racked up only 48 yards in their final five offensive drives versus the Raiders. As great as Justin Herbert is, can we trust him to post 200+ passing yards and 2+ TDs without his top receiver?
Possibly. It’s an ugly answer in betting, but it’s reality. For Herbert to shine, he’ll need Austin Ekeler at his best. Seventy-two total yards while mustering only 2.6 YPC won’t get it done in Week 2.
I believe Kansas City will focus more on Ekeler than any other LA playmaker, forcing Herbert to win through the air, especially if Allen sits or is limited. Given Ekeler’s steep DFS price, he carries more risk than reward.
Recommended Chiefs vs. Chargers DFS Picks/Lineup
Here are two recommended lineups based on slightly divergent game scripts. Each script assumes a Chiefs victory, led by Mahomes, who serves as our “MVP” at $17,000. That leaves us with $43,000 for four Flex players. In one lineup, Mahomes is joined by Travis Kelce ($14,000) and Skyy Moore ($6,500).
Yes, it’s risky going with Moore. But we have enough left to lock in Herbert ($15,500) and Joshua Palmer ($7,000). The thinking here is that the running games will be largely shut down and that Kansas City’s defense will take away Herbert’s top target, elevating Palmer to a primary role.
Our other lineup joins Mahomes with JuJu Smith-Schuster ($11,000), Mecole Hardman ($7,500), and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Kansas City won’t take the gas off the pedal even if they jump to a 17-point lead.
So we can envision the possibility of an offensive outburst from the running game and the passing game. For that Chargers, that leaves us with Mike Williams ($12,500). This lineup assumes more of a blowout, with Herbert slinging it to his healthiest “great” receiver.
