If you’re making Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers DFS picks for Sunday in Week 1, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations. The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers DFS picks
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
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Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Cowboys DFS considerations
The Cowboys are down Michael Gallup and James Washington, and they’re also leaning heavily on a former all-world running back with more career rushing attempts than any active NFL starter. Can Ezekiel Elliott produce at pre-2020 levels? Will rookie Jalen Tolbert step up as a No. 3 option behind adept pass catchers CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz?
It will be interesting to see how much they lean on the run with a meaningfully depleted offensive line. Dallas has won only one playoff game in the last seven seasons. They’ve lost their last eight road playoff games dating back to 1994. Based on high expectations, they’re facing enormous pressure to claim the NFC’s No. 1 seed, and beating the Bucs could mean the difference. I’m expecting the offense to run largely through Dak Prescott and his top playmakers.
Buccaneers DFS considerations
Tampa Bay has had a strange offseason, to say the least, and I’ve been going back and forth on which team will win this one. The Bucs’ defense underwhelmed at times last year, partly due to injuries. They are a major X-factor for a team making another Super Bowl push. Also, like the Cowboys, the Bucs have had their offensive-line woes. Can Leonard Fournette continue to shine, and/or will Rachaad White step up?
That brings us to the one and only Tom Brady. Later this season, this passing attack might be clicking on all cylinders. But for now, there are more questions than answers with Chris Godwin hobbled, Russell Gage hurt, and Julio Jones trying to prove he’s not merely a reclamation project.
It’s hard to imagine Brady & company disappointing. But in DFS, we need to examine realistic ceilings, and there are good reasons to wonder whether the Bucs will resemble last year’s juggernaut in Week 1.
Recommended DFS lineup
This lineup did not come together the way I’d anticipated at the outset. I keep coming back to Jones. He is the kind of player most teams have long given up on. The kind of player who thrives alongside Brady. Based on his competitive price, I’m pairing Jones ($5,000) with Brady ($10,000), believing those two realistically could connect 5+ times.
On the other side of the ball, I’m placing Schultz ($6,800 normally, $10,200 as Captain) in the Captain slot. I’d be surprised if more than 15% of competitors do this, meaning we’ll be at a competitive advantage if he serves as Prescott’s No. 2 receiver, which should net him at least six catches for 60+ yards. Since this game could be fairly high-scoring, I’m also comfortable betting on Schultz to score.
This lineup would not be complete without Prescott ($10,200) and Lamb ($10,400), both of whom are poised to shine in Week 1. And Brian Maher ($3,800) earns the final spot. Not a flashy pick, but a useful fill-in with little salary cap remaining.
