If you’re making Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders DFS picks for Sunday in Week 1, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations. The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Chargers vs. Raiders DFS picks
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
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Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Chargers DFS considerations
Two highly potent offenses with a combined five receivers with at least one 1,000-yard season. This could be the week’s highest-scoring affair. The Chargers will be a tough out all season, thanks in part to an ascending Josh Palmer and a seemingly stabilized backfield that shouldn’t have to lean overly heavy on Austin Ekeler, especially on the ground. However, it remains unclear whether Sony Michel, Isaiah Spiller, or even Joshua Kelley can earn enough touches to be relevant.
Meanwhile, Mike Williams might be the X-factor in this offense, if not the entire AFC West. He’s seemingly as capable of producing 100 yards with a touchdown as he is three catches for 25 scoreless yards. On a team with three locked-in, high-impact playmakers, Williams is that fourth option who just as easily could push for even greater prominence than what we saw last year — or regress.
Raiders DFS considerations
As for the Raiders, much is expected after the team landed Davante Adams. But can Darren Waller re-emerge as an elite TE, or have age and injuries rendered him an overvalued, TD-dependent starter? For this offense to click as it was designed to, he needs to be involved. Few tight ends are as talented when playing at their best.
About a month ago, I dropped Josh Jacobs below Zamir White in my fantasy rankings. Yes, it sounds strange, but I’d seen enough the last few years and this summer to conclude that Jacobs’ status as the lead back is tenuous at best. The question, then, is whether this backfield is too muddled to trust. Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden loom. Can we really trust Jacobs or anyone else to earn more than 12 touches?
Recommended DFS lineup
In any optimal DFS lineup, there are times to go big, and there are times to go small … so that we can go even bigger. I’m taking a leap by placing Dustin Hopkins ($3,600 normally, $5,400 as Captain) in our Captain slot. This should be a relatively high-scoring game, and my preliminary research (which could take a year to complete) shows that winning kickers score considerably more points, on average, than losing kickers.
Yes, this might make sense, theoretically. But when put into practice, bettors might lean toward kickers whose teams are more likely to win. In this game, I believe the Chargers will prevail, making Hopkins the better bet over Daniel Carlson. And by the way, I’m also placing Carlson in this lineup because his cheap $3,400 price tag allows us to take four high-ceiling producers.
And who are those producers? Adams ($11,200), Justin Herbert ($11,000), Ekeler (11,800), and Hunter Renfrow ($7,200). We should not be surprised if the first three are among the top four DFS scorers in this one, while Renfrow remains a sneaky high-upside playmaker who could realistically earn 9+ targets.
