Miami Dolphins running back Chase Edmonds is expected to lead what should be a committee in Miami — both on the field and in fantasy football. What is Edmonds’ current ADP, and should managers select him at that price in fantasy drafts?
Chase Edmonds ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Edmonds’ ADP is about 110th overall and is being drafted as the RB35. Edmonds is the exact type of running back I like to target as my RB2 (or RB3). He’s the highest-drafted running back in the Dolphins’ backfield and has proven pass-catching upside.
Once the top running backs are off the board, you’re not getting ones that do it all. You just need to avoid the between-the-20s backs that don’t catch passes and don’t get goal-line carries. Edmonds catches passes, and there’s still a chance he sees goal-line work.
Chase Edmonds’ projected fantasy value in 2022
While I do like Edmonds, his profile doesn’t exactly scream breakout. Edmonds is now entering his fifth NFL season. His former team, the Cardinals, never committed to him as their feature back. He’s never reached 1,000 total yards in a season (although he was on pace to get there last year if not for injury.
Similar to 2021, Edmonds is now in a position to be the lead back, this time on a new team. Fantasy managers do need to temper expectations, though. The term “lead back” doesn’t mean he’s getting Najee Harris-level volume. It just means he’ll be the guy with the most touches.
Edmonds averaged a career-high 14 opportunities (carries plus targets) per game last season. As someone drafting Edmonds a lot this season, I’d sign up for that usage right now.
Even in an injury-shortened year where he played just 11 games (I’m not counting the game where he got hurt on his first carry), Edmonds set career-highs in total touches. This led to a career-best 11.9 PPR fantasy points per game.
Where Edmonds truly excels is as a receiver. His 13.4% target share last season and 25.9 receiving yards per game were both the highest marks of his career. Edmonds’ pass-catching acumen will enable him to maintain a decent floor and produce RB2 numbers even if he doesn’t see significant volume. A target is approximately three times more valuable than a carry.
Impact of the Dolphins’ depth chart on Edmonds’ fantasy value
The Dolphins have been searching for a running back since Lamar Miller left in 2016. Yeah, it’s been that long. Miami’s backfield lacks a true alpha and has for a while.
Last season, the Dolphins utilized Myles Gaskin, Phillip Lindsay, Duke Johnson, and Salvon Ahmed. This season, only Gaskin and Ahmed remain from that group. However, the Dolphins have no interest in using either one of them unless they absolutely have to. We know this because the team signed Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Sony Michel.
It would be surprising to see Edmonds command more than a 50% opportunity share. By the looks of it, the depth chart will be Edmonds/Mostert/Michel. I think this is somewhere in the range of a 50/40/10 split.
This backfield is probably Edmonds or bust for fantasy
Mostert is a former UDFA who was really good for just one season. He’s now 30 years old, coming off two serious knee injuries, and has played just nine games the past two seasons. Mostert’s relationship with new head coach Mike McDaniel will likely earn him a larger role than he should get, but he’s unlikely to do more than take carries from Edmonds — carries we didn’t really expect Edmonds to get anyway. That is, of course, if Mostert can even stay on the field.
As for Michel, his career looked to be cooked after flaming out with the Patriots. Credit to him for reviving himself a bit with the Rams. During his six games as the team’s lead back, he averaged 14.7 ppg. Michel fits the RB2 role better than Mostert and would likely take over Edmonds’ workload if he got hurt. However, I don’t see Michel as someone with any fantasy value right away.
The Dolphins’ offseason moves focused heavily on offense. They hired an offensive-minded head coach, signed Edmonds and Cedrick Wilson, and traded for Tyreek Hill. This looks like a team that wants to throw. Consider Edmonds a floor-based RB2 in this revamped Dolphins offense.
