Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett has been a consistent fantasy football producer for four seasons now. However, the Seahawks underwent a massive shakeup entering the upcoming season with their decision to trade away Russell Wilson. With Drew Lock or Geno Smith starting at quarterback, what can fantasy managers expect from Lockett in the 2022 season, and should you draft him at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Tyler Lockett’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Lockett has been one of the more polarizing players over the past couple of seasons. On the surface, he looks like a remarkably consistent player. And on a season-long level, he is. Lockett has averaged between 13.8 and 16.6 PPR points per game for four consecutive seasons. His production has ranged from low WR1 to low WR2, and he’s never been prohibitively expensive in fantasy drafts.
Lockett’s season-long consistency is betrayed by his week-to-week volatility
A deeper dive into Lockett reveals a very different player. When Lockett finally broke out in 2018, he was a very reliable weekly producer. Then, in 2019, something changed. Lockett scored 41.9% of his season total fantasy points in just three games. Fantasy managers didn’t overreact because Lockett’s skill set wasn’t typical of a player that is incredibly boom or bust. Surely he’d be more consistent in 2020…
Well, in 2020, Lockett scored 46.3% of his season total fantasy points in just three games. Two seasons in a row of production like this makes it a talking point. So, entering the 2021 season, many fantasy managers faded Lockett because of his volatility. But some chalked it up to variance. Surely he’d be more consistent in 2021…
And he actually was. Lockett’s top three games accounted for just 35% of his season total fantasy points. Unfortunately, Lockett left a sour taste in the mouths of many fantasy managers because of his fantasy postseason disappearing act. Lockett didn’t play in Week 15 and then scored six and 12.1 fantasy points in Weeks 16 and 17.
Lockett’s efficiency is almost certain to drop sans Russell Wilson
Lockett averaged 11.4 yards per target and 2.58 yards per route run last season. He was efficient, but his volume was down because of his team. His 24% target share was in line with the previous season, but it only amounted to 107 total targets compared to 132 from the year prior. I have serious concerns regarding what his usage and efficiency will look like in a post-Russell Wilson world.
How the Seahawks’ depth chart impacts Tyler Lockett’s fantasy projection for the season
The fantasy community’s reaction to the Seahawks trading away Wilson was pretty uniform: bad for DK Metcalf, and really bad for Lockett.
The entire offense takes a significant hit going from Wilson to either Drew Lock or Geno Smith. This only gives the master of the 1970s offense, Pete Carroll, more of an excuse to run the ball. The Seahawks choosing to draft Kenneth Walker in the second round only furthers the belief that they will try and run as much as they can.
As if that isn’t bad enough, the Seahawks were the slowest team in the league in pace of play last season … and it wasn’t close. They ran 908 total plays (53 per game), which was a whopping 58 fewer plays than the next slowest team.
The Seahawks also acquired Noah Fant in the Wilson trade. While Lockett remains second on this team in the target hierarchy behind Metcalf, Fant gives this passing attack one more weapon. More target competition is never good for a receiver.
Lockett is more likely to suffer from poor quarterback play than DK Metcalf
All of this points to Lockett’s production taking a significant hit in 2022. Metcalf’s physical stature and raw athleticism will help keep him afloat. Less accurate quarterbacks like Smith and Lock can fall back on just throwing it up in Metcalf’s general vicinity. While Lockett’s 40% contested-catch rate is better than you’d expect for a 5’10” receiver, he’s going to suffer more from the quarterback downgrade than Metcalf.
Lockett relied heavily on his rapport with Wilson and Wilson’s precision accuracy at all levels. He’s not going to get that from Lock or Smith. I have little faith in either to support two top-36 wide receivers in a slow-paced, run-heavy offense.
Lockett’s ADP for 2022
Lockett’s ADP is around 90th overall. He’s being drafted as a high WR4 (WR37). This is Lockett’s lowest ADP in years. Clearly, the fantasy community understands much of what I’ve written above. Smith or Lock is going to be an issue for Lockett.
When it comes to making selections in fantasy football drafts, opportunity cost is everything. Despite being 29 years old, Lockett’s skills are not declining. If he got traded to the Packers tomorrow, he’d be a top-36 pick immediately. Lockett’s ADP plummet is solely due to the Seahawks’ quarterback situation.
So, is he worth it? Well … maybe? Taking wide receivers who are good at football outside the top 36 at their position is usually a good bet. Lockett certainly has the talent to overcome his situation. Our PFN consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings have Lockett just inside the top 100 overall and 40th at the position. He will likely finish higher than that in terms of total points, but knowing when to start and sit him will likely cause fantasy managers massive headaches.
Additionally, Lockett’s ADP is around several younger receivers who are also talented and in better situations. I’m down to take anyone if they fall far enough, but Lockett would have to fall beyond a handful of first-, second-, and third-year players before I’d be willing to take him.
