The Buffalo Bills have Josh Allen, and that means they have a chance in any game. In a weird way, however, it hasn’t assured us of fantasy football goodness for any of his pass catchers.
Not on a consistent basis anyway, not since Stefon Diggs left town. Dalton Kincaid required first-round draft capital in 2023, and the results have been mixed to date, making him an interesting discussion point at a suddenly deep-ish position.
Should You Draft Dalton Kincaid in Fantasy Football?
How you feel about Kincaid to date really depends on your expectations.
On one hand, he caught 73 balls as a rookie and, while it may not be your first thought when reliving the 2025 NFL season, he was elite on a per-route basis. Not “good”. Not “elite for a tight end”. Elite.
Top Yards Per Route Players in 2025 (Min. 25 targets)
- Puka Nacua: 3.71
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 3.68
- Dalton Kincaid: 2.83
- Luther Burden III: 2.71
For what it’s worth, Greg Dulcich (33 targets) found his way into this qualified list and was second at the position (2.38), while Tucker Kraft (2.37) and George Kittle (2.18) were the only TEs to surpass the 2.00 threshold last season.
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On the other hand, that’s a rate stat that captures the season as a whole. If you rostered Kincaid, you likely remember it never felt comfortable, and you’re not wrong to feel that way: he wasn’t one of the 37 TEs with consecutive 10+ PPR-point games last year.
There’s certainly talent in this profile, and it’s far too early to use the “b” word, but there have been some bust qualities shown of late, including health issues in consecutive seasons (nine missed games over the past two seasons). Combine his resume with the March trade for DJ Moore and the lack of ADP momentum tracks.
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There will come a time, however, when the price is right. Moore has proved over the past two seasons (9.9 yards per catch in 2024 and 13.6 in 2025) that he is comfortable in a variety of roles, something that could allow Kincaid to thrive if he can develop a niche in this offense.
Drafting two tight ends isn’t recommended. Kincaid should be considered a low-end TE1: one that requires some squinting to feel good about, but one that at least has a path to weekly viability, even if we’ve yet to truly see it.
Kincaid’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
The dynasty story is similar to the redraft one in that Kincaid isn’t to be viewed as a top-100 player and is on the fringes of the TE1 tier.
The offensive floor that comes in a Josh Allen offense has me slightly more bullish on Kincaid in longer-looking leagues. Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews are in this general range, but both are on the back ends of their respective careers, thus positioning them as the tier under Kincaid in my eyes.
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At cost, I’m in. There is a level of uncertainty when it comes to Buffalo’s target hierarchy with the 29-year-old Moore in the mix, but even if he earns volume, there is plenty of room for an athlete like Kincaid to round into form.
He’s scored just nine times in 41 games, and the predictive metrics like end zone targets (11) don’t suggest that he is simply running cold in the luck department. He is, however, still just 26 years of age and in an offense that will grade out as above-average, if not elite, for the foreseeable future.
This isn’t a bulletproof profile, but at this price, it doesn’t need to be.
