If you’re competing in a DFS tournament or 50/50 competition for Sunday’s NFL Pro Bowl single-game slate between the AFC and NFC, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve run through dozens of potential game scripts to arrive at the most likely scenarios and how these scenarios would impact fantasy football performances. Here is our recommended NFL Pro Bowl DFS lineup, with the picks based on DraftKings pricing.
Top NFL Pro Bowl DFS DraftKings picks for AFC vs. NFC | Strategy
Assessing player production in the final week of the regular season invites extraordinary challenges. Who will sit? Who will exit after the first quarter? Which backups will be forced to step up, and will any of them thrive?
On the one hand, assessing Pro Bowl player production is even tougher. Players cycle in and out at each position. The average quarterback might throw 8-12 times. Running backs generally earn no more than 4-6 touches. And so on. In a sense, we’re rolling the dice on who will score or who might net that one big scoring play.
But in examining various DFS lineups for this year’s Pro Bowl, we’ve determined a path to optimize upside, and it lies with wideouts and tight ends. For example, the top six fantasy producers in the last Pro Bowl (2020) were WRs and TEs. In the last five Pro Bowls, QBs have thrown 26 TD passes and 21 interceptions. The only RB to secure 10+ fantasy points in the last four Pro Bowls was fullback Anthony Sherman.
Yes, Anthony Sherman.
WRs and TEs thrived in recent Pro Bowls
Our money this weekend is on WRs and TEs. The data shows that while they’re boom-or-bust, their boom is unquestionably higher than the QBs and RBs. If you’re using DFS 50/50 slates, six receivers offer a fantastic hedge. If you’re competing in DFS tournaments, you might get lucky starting a QB who scores on his first two drives. But QBs rarely run in Pro Bowls. They have roughly 15-20 plays to produce. We’d still recommend going all-in on receivers.
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Finally, do we choose WRs or TEs, or both? In the past five Pro Bowls, WRs have caught 12 TD passes, while TEs have caught 11. During this stretch, nine WRs have cracked 70+ receiving yards, compared to six TEs. This narrow disparity among elite-performing WRs and TEs informs our DFS decisions.
Top NFL Pro Bowl DFS DraftKings picks for AFC vs. NFC | AFC
This portion of the PFN DFS Pro Bowl lineup assumes the AFC’s two tight ends pick up where they left off when their respective seasons ended. It also assumes some big plays by the most electric AFC wideout playing today.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,200)
Tyreek Hill has unfinished business. The Chiefs exited the playoffs earlier than they expected. On the downside, across three Pro Bowls, he’s netted only 5 catches for 50 yards. Nonetheless, his best performance came during Patrick Mahomes’ only appearance. On a team with a dearth of monster-play wideouts, Hill arguably presents the most upside.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,400)
This season, Travis Kelce endured his lowest catch rate since 2017. Yet, he dominated down the stretch, reeling in 81% of targets since Week 15 and scoring in each game during that span. Like his high-flying teammate presented above, Kelce is a must-start in DFS. It helps that he’s seen the end zone 3 times in his last two Pro Bowl outings.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens ($6,000) ($9,000 in Captain slot)
Fantasy’s No. 1 tight end led all AFC fantasy producers in his only Pro Bowl appearance (2020), compiling a 9-73-1 receiving line. While more than 50% of his numbers came with Lamar Jackson at QB, Andrews kept racking up catches and yards when Deshaun Watson took his turn under center. Baltimore’s (and fantasy’s) TE hero poses a threat to defenses on every play. If you have a Captain slot, Andrews belongs there.
Top NFL Pro Bowl DFS DraftKings picks for AFC vs. NFC | NFC
This portion of the lineup assumes three of the NFC’s four best active wideouts meet or exceed expectations. Can they help turn this DFS slate into a winner?
Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers ($8,600)
Deebo Samuel scores from all over the field, both as a running back and receiver. Simply put, few NFL players can do what he does. In the regular season, he was No. 2 in the league in yards after the catch. We believe NFC quarterbacks will look to him more than just about anyone else.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings ($8,000)
This will be Justin Jefferson’s first of possibly 10 Pro Bowls, and that’s no exaggeration. Perhaps dynasty’s No. 1 fantasy WR, Jefferson should earn many looks, particularly with Kirk Cousins under center for a quarter or more.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,600)
Strong cases could be made for TEs George Kittle or Kyle Pitts. But we’re going with one of the best wideouts of the past eight years — a still-in-his-prime 28-year-old on track for NFL immortality if health and desire hold up for 6-8 more seasons. In the aftermath of Tom Brady’s retirement — and in the midst of confusion over his franchise’s short-term direction (win now or rebuild) — Evans remains the one constant. He’s a brilliant receiver who thrives on the biggest stages.
