Before the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals face off in Super Bowl 56, we have the Pro Bowl. It is never easy, but let’s look at the NFL odds and make some picks and predictions as to what will happen in the 2022 NFL Pro Bowl.
2022 Pro Bowl Picks and Predictions: Who will win?
Since the merger, the AFC holds a 25-22 record over the NFC in the Pro Bowl. The teams have faced off 47 times, even though there were 51 seasons over that span.
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From 2013-2015, the NFL switched the Pro Bowl format to two teams drafted by NFL legends such as Michael Irvin, Jerry Rice, Deion Sanders, and Cris Carter. Last year, the Pro Bowl was not played due to COVID-19 concerns. What can we expect from this year’s game, which will be the first Pro Bowl since 2020?
Which team will cover the spread?
Most of the main sportsbooks wait until the very last minute to publish Pro Bowl lines. Amongst the lines I was able to find, the AFC is installed as a 1.5-point favorite.
Since returning to the AFC vs. NFC format in 2017, the AFC has won every game (four straight). Of course, that doesn’t make them any more or less likely to win this year’s Pro Bowl.
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There’s only so much analysis that can be done when we’re talking about the best players in the NFL. One thing that stands out to me is what I anticipate to be the fourth-quarter quarterback situation.
The NFC should be deploying one of Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the AFC will probably be sending out Mac Jones. As a result, the NFC should be able to move the ball better late in the game, which is when both teams really start to actually try. If you intend to place a bet on the winner of the Pro Bowl, I lean toward the NFC. This may be getting a little too cute, but perhaps a separate wager on the NFC to win the fourth quarter is worth a stab as well.
What about the total?
The total is set at around 61-62 points, depending on where you’re looking. From 2000-2012, the Pro Bowl was mostly a festival of points. During the four Pro Bowls before the brief switch to the legends-drafting format, scoring was at an all-time high. The teams averaged 92 points per game from 2010-2013.
Beginning in 2014, the NFL changed the format and implemented some rule changes resulting in fewer scores. Since the 2014 Pro Bowl, the teams scored under 50 combined points five times. The most recent Pro Bowl, in 2020, was the highest-scoring matchup since 2013. Could we see the offensive trend continue?
Each year is different, and it all depends upon how seriously the players are taking the game defensively. We know no one is out there trying to lay any big hits or risk injury, but we have seen defenses clamp down a little bit over the past decade.
Normally, I’m a bettor that prefers unders because that’s where the value lies. However, this is the Pro Bowl. It’s supposed to be fun. If you are going to bet on the total, go with the over. Have a good time with it. Hope that after a one-year hiatus, the players in the game are looking to put on a show and give us a shootout.
