Week 18 Saturday fantasy football is here — the final regular season Saturday football until next December. This week features two exciting matchups with postseason seeding implications. If you’re competing in DFS tournaments or 50/50 competitions, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve examined the most likely game scripts for the Broncos vs. Chiefs and Eagles vs. Cowboys. Here is our highest-probability high-upside DFS lineup. As always, these NFL DFS picks for today’s slate are based on FanDuel pricing.
Top NFL DFS picks for Saturday Week 18 | QB and RBs
This lineup’s quarterback and running backs assume the Cowboys are committed to playing their starters, Denver will get a closer look at their future lead back, and the Eagles have no choice but to lean on their largely untested rookie RB. Our focus is on optimizing elite potential, knowing that landing two exceptional RBs and a dominant QB could set up this lineup to be a big winner.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys ($7,700)
We could go all-in on the Chiefs’ passing game, but Patrick Mahomes costs $800 more, and I believe their ceilings are comparable today. After all, the Broncos are yielding the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, while the Eagles are giving up the 10th-fewest.
Dak Prescott has enjoyed 19.9+ DFS points 10 times this season, including in his last two games. With COVID impacting some Eagles players this week, there are many reasons to believe Dallas’ passing attack will be the best bet.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos ($6,000)
The Cowboys and Chiefs are both more likely than the Broncos and Eagles to take it easy on their running backs, especially with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out and both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard displaying more fragility than usual.
If you’re going to bet on a breakout RB today, go with Javonte Williams. His mammoth ceiling is capped only by teammate Melvin Gordon. While Kansas City is giving up a middling 14th-most fantasy points to opposing backfields, they’re yielding the fourth-most RB receptions (106) and third-most RB receiving yards (863). Williams is a fairly inexpensive, solid-upside play.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles ($4,800)
We have to find bargains where we can, and Kenneth Gainwell fits the bill. The rookie has flashed when given the opportunity. The problem is that when Miles Sanders got hurt earlier this season, the Eagles signed Jordan Howard, who mixed in with Boston Scott to crowd out Gainwell’s development. When Sanders returned, Gainwell was “fantasia persona non grata”: a player with no tangible fantasy value for reasons other than lack of talent.
With Sanders (hand) out for Week 18 — and both Howard and Scott on the reserve/COVID-19 list — there’s a good chance Gainwell could get 10+ points as the highest-touch Philadelphia RB.
Top NFL DFS picks for Saturday Week 18 | WRs
This lineup’s stacked wide receivers consist of three bounce-back, high-ceiling options. How confident are we that these three wideouts will help you win?
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($8,200)
Tyreek Hill was in our DFS lineup last week but failed to deliver despite a healthy 10 targets (6 catches for 40 yards). Few NFL wideouts can do what Hill can do when things break right.
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Even against tough defenses, 30+ points are a distinct possibility any given week. Who cares that he hasn’t exceeded 10 DFS fantasy points in four of his last five contests? We’re not setting lineups based on the past; we’re setting them based on the immediate future. Hill is a potential DFS winner.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys ($7,400)
CeeDee Lamb’s recent struggles are inexplicable. He has one 16-plus-point DFS fantasy performance since Week 8 and has been in single digits each of his last three games. This is not the new norm. It’s a blip. If we believe in Prescott, then we need to believe in Lamb, who remains Dallas’ highest-upside receiver.
Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys ($7,000)
What’s true for Lamb is true for Amari Cooper, who’s struggled this season with injuries and a lack of targets. Today’s matchup against the Eagles presents the Cowboys with a get-right opportunity. Dallas’ offense needs to be clicking for the playoffs. While Philadelphia has a good pass defense, I believe Dallas’ aerial attack — when fully functional — can break down any defense. Assuming Prescott has a good game, Cooper should have a good game.
Top NFL DFS picks for Saturday Week 18 | TE, Flex, D/ST
We have $18,900 remaining in this top-heavy DFS lineup. What’s the optimal combination for these final three slots?
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas Chiefs ($8,000)
This lineup is designed to accommodate a high-priced tight end. With Dallas Goedert on the reserve/COVID-19 list, there are no other uber-upside options. And frankly, aside from Mark Andrews, no fantasy TE rivals Travis Kelce when it comes to upside in the 2021 season.
DeVonta Smith, Flex, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,000)
If you don’t trust DeVonta Smith, you can plug in Melvin Gordon instead. Candidly, I don’t trust Smith. Who would? Given his talent level, he’s one of the most painfully underutilized receivers in the game.
He’s exceeded 8.1 DFS fantasy points only once in his last six contests. Yet, he remains Philadelphia’s No. 1 receiver. I expect the Eagles to be playing from behind for much of the game. Smith has hit 15.7+ points five times. He can do it again.
Dallas Cowboys, D/ST ($4,400)
Perhaps the $5,000 Chiefs D/ST will perform better, but we don’t have enough cap space to fit them into this lineup. Furthermore, I believe Denver will run a more conservative offense than Philadelphia will, meaning fewer sack and turnover opportunities for the Chiefs. On a fantasy level, no D/ST has scored more points than the Cowboys. That should be enough evidence to conclude this DFS lineup.
