The Baltimore Ravens have had one of the most fascinating fantasy backfields in the NFL this season. And by “fascinating,” I mean “unpredictable.” Since August, there have been five presumed “lead” Baltimore running backs and two other hyped complementary RBs. Heading into their Week 16 matchup against the Bengals, we’re down to only two potential fantasy football contributors. Can Devonta Freeman or Latavius Murray help fantasy managers today?
Devonta Freeman Week 16 fantasy outlook
I had a tough decision to make yesterday afternoon. My flex, Mike Williams, landed on the COVID list. With no decent options available on waivers, I could plug in either Courtland Sutton, AJ Dillon, or Freeman. I chose Dillon, despite the fact Freeman’s touches seemingly are more assured. Why?
First, despite his surprisingly solid production this year, Freeman is a running back whose ceiling is murky going into the AFC North clash with Cincy. He took over the lead role in this backfield because of two strong performances in Weeks 6 and 8 against the Chargers and Vikings — two subpar run defenses. In those contests, he enjoyed rushing lines of 9-53-1 and 13-79-0, which collectively was an unsustainable 6.0 yards per carry.
Sure enough, he’s regressed to his expected efficiency level since then, exceeding 3.7 yards per carry only once in his last six games. And with Josh Johnson at QB instead of Lamar Jackson or even Tyler Huntley, it’s not hard to see how Freeman could get game-scripted out of today’s contest. Baltimore’s bottom-tier pass defense likely will be exposed by the home Bengals, leading Johnson to throw far more than the Ravens want him to.
If Freeman benefits from several dump-off passes, he could reach 8+ points. But the Bengals have improved against the run, yielding the fifth-fewest points to opposing backfields in the last four weeks. I don’t see Freeman exceeding 40 yards on the ground. He’s a risky RB3/4.
Latavius Murray Week 16 fantasy outlook
Murray is in an even more precarious situation fantasy-wise. The nearly 32-year-old somehow out-touched Freeman last week 8-7. Is this the dawn of a Murray resurgence?
Not likely. Before Week 15, he had exceeded 3.3 ypc only once in his previous seven games. He is no longer a reliable rusher, and his passing-game usage consistently has trailed that of Freeman.
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If you’re starting Murray today, you’re hoping he gets a 1-yard TD lunge, just as he did in Week 14 en route to a 6.1-point fantasy day. That’s right — that touchdown was his only touch in that game.
So, you’re playing with fire if you start Murray. I’d be shocked if he exceeds 6.1 points.
