Can fantasy football managers trust James Robinson as a must-start RB in Week 15? He’s been hit-or-miss all season due to injuries and the Jaguars’ poor offensive play. With Carlos Hyde (concussion) officially out for Sunday, what can fantasy managers realistically expect from Robinson, and could Dare Ogunbowale play the spoiler?
James Robinson’s up-and-down fantasy production
In the aftermath of one of the most infamous head coaching reigns in NFL history, the Jaguars hope to end the season strong, looking ahead to a more promising 2022. Robinson is a key cog in this offense — a former undrafted free agent who proved last year that he not only belongs in the NFL but in the upper echelon of fantasy RBs. He was the RB7 in 2020 despite missing two games. Enough said.
On paper, Robinson has had another great season in 2021. He’s averaged 4.8 yards per carry compared to his 4.5 ypc last year. Additionally, Robinson has already scored the same amount of TDs that he did in 2020 (7). However, his volume is down, recording 12 rushing attempts and 2.3 receptions per game vs. 17 and 3.5 in 2020. He’s gone from workhorse to “lead back,” culminating in a steep fantasy decline to the RB21.
Carlos Hyde has stolen touches in the backfield
If you’re banking on must-start production from Robinson, you need volume. Normally, you’d also want a favorable game script, but that hasn’t seemed to impact the Jags’ franchise running back. 121 of Robinson’s 171 touches this year (71%) have come while trailing.
Now, we can rationalize that Robinson is earning so many negative-game-script touches because, well, Jacksonville is usually playing from behind. But it’s not as if he’s obsolete in the offense. Instead, perhaps the difference between him being an RB1 and RB2 lies with whether the Jaguars are leading.
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And that theory is born out by what we’ve witnessed this season. In Jacksonville’s one victory when Robinson was starting, he picked up 20 touches. In the other Jaguars win (when Robinson was on the sidelines), Hyde enjoyed 22 touches.
Moreover, Trevor Lawrence has passed or rushed 34 times this year with Jacksonville leading. Robinson and Hyde combined? 36 times. And with Hyde out for Sunday, we can envision Robinson playing a prominent role if the Jags have a favorable game script.
Week 15 fantasy outlook for Jaguars RBs
Fortunately, they’re playing another 2-11 team, and one that happens to be yielding 4.7 yards per carry to opposing rushers. The fact is, the Texans are beatable in this one, and I’d be shocked if Robinson isn’t heavily utilized.
Despite Robinson’s consensus RB19 Week 15 ranking, I believe he’s a must-start fantasy running back with top-10 upside. He’s playing at the same high level he played at last year. The biggest difference has been underwhelming volume. Assuming the Jaguars capitalize on this plus matchup, Robinson should be a huge beneficiary.
Uber-backup Dare Ogunbowale could play the spoiler. But realistically this has the makings of a get-right game for Robinson, with Ogunbowale offering garbage-time appeal if this becomes a surprising blowout.
