The easy calls are easy, and when we’re wrong, nearly everyone’s wrong. It’s the hard calls that separate great fantasy football managers from the rest. With that in mind, heading into Week 11’s Sunday/Monday slate, who are some borderline players I’m eyeballing, and where do they fall on the start ’em, sit ’em spectrum?
NFL Start ‘Em for Week 11: Be bold or be defeated
Last week on this very website, I hit 75% of my highly contrarian Week 10 start ’em, sit ’em predictions. These picks were based on research that most fantasy experts were overlooking. Start Mason Rudolph as a top-16 QB streamer? He finished 13th. Sit high-end QB2 Matt Ryan against a Dallas defense that Denver had just exposed? Ryan finished 34th. Sit seemingly obvious RB2 Elijah Mitchell? His 9.1 fantasy points didn’t help many managers.
None of the players below are obvious starts in most leagues, based on expert consensus Week 11 rankings. But there’s more value in finding diamonds in the rough than in starting the obvious guys. So here are three under-the-radar starts for Week 11.
Start ‘Em | Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
Expert Consensus Week 11 Ranking: QB15
I have written about Cam Newton at every opportunity since Carolina signed him last week. What he showed this past Sunday in limited snaps — his first regular-season action in nearly a year — was the tip of the iceberg for this former perennial QB1.
He’s facing an underperforming Washington defense that finally (maybe?) turned a corner this past weekend against Tampa Bay. I’m not buying it. Cam will outperform expectations with the help of an elite RB (Christian McCaffrey), a top-20 wideout (DJ Moore), and a rebounding streamer (Robby Anderson).
Start ‘Em | Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers
Expert Consensus Week 11 Ranking: WR54
Did someone say “Robby Anderson?” As I’ve shared several times, among all NFL wideouts with more than 10 receptions, Anderson has the lowest catch rate (39%). In fact, the last time a WR with more than 10 receptions had a lower rate was John Ross in 2018 (36.2%).
So why am I recommending Anderson? Because the talented receiver has nowhere to go but up after Carolina’s quarterback change. He’s tied for 32nd in the league in WR targets with 59. Last year, he was a top-20 fantasy WR. Ignore his low Week 11 ranking. Don’t sleep on Anderson.
Start ‘Em | Ty Johnson, RB, New York Jets
Expert Consensus Week 11 Ranking: RB42
There’s nothing to gain personally from writing about Ty Johnson. After all, I traded for Michael Carter weeks ago and am all in on the Jets rookie RB. Johnson gives me nothing but nightmares about radioactive bear cubs and the occasional indigestion.
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But here’s the thing: Johnson is good, especially in a system that puts more weight on his pass-catching skills (18 receptions in his last four games) than his rushing (3.4 yards per carry on the year).
Whether or not New York’s installment of Joe Flacco at QB impacts Johnson, the relatively favorable matchup against Miami gives him an opening to collect his third touchdown in four weeks. He’s a fantastic dart throw at a cheap price.
NFL Sit ‘Em for Week 11: Be courageous or live with regret
None of these players are obvious sits in most leagues. But too often, managers feel pressure to start players who are supposed to do well, even if the circumstances are more challenging than they seem. Here are three under-the-radar Week 11 busts.
Sit ‘Em | D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions
Expert Consensus Week 11 Ranking: RB6
Someday when I’m older and less dependent on a steady income, I’ll research how running backs fare the week after an uber-heavy workload. Last weekend, D’Andre Swift put his team on his back, heroically carrying the Lions to an unlikely tie on the road against the favored Steelers. His 33 carries were tied for the second-most by an RB this season and tied for the third-most since December 2017.
This weekend, he’ll travel to Cleveland to face a defense that’s No. 3 in the NFL against the run (3.8 yards per carry) and No. 7 in offensive time of possession. The volume will be there for Swift. But he’s a long shot to finish in the top 16.
Sit ‘Em | Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
Expert Consensus Week 11 Ranking: RB16
Saquon Barkley’s ambitious ranking might be more hopeful than realistic. Expected to return to the field against the Buccaneers for the first time since suffering a Week 5 ankle injury, Barkley probably can’t be counted on for a full workload.
Devontae Booker has performed far better than I expected in relief of the Giants’ franchise RB. Barkley’s RB2 ranking in Week 11 assumes an unrealistic production level after a long layoff against the league’s second-best run defense (3.7 yards per carry). Bench him and reassess in Week 12.
Sit ‘Em | Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
Expert Consensus Week 11 Ranking: WR16
Did somebody say “16”? Michael Pittman Jr. is the consensus 16th-ranked fantasy WR in Week 11. He’s the WR7 on the season. I was big on him this summer as Carson Wentz’s presumable No. 1 receiver. I didn’t trust T.Y. Hilton’s health or ability to play at a consistently high level.
Here’s the thing, though: the Colts will face a Bills defense that is keeping opponents to a 60.7 QB rating. For context, that is the lowest average in 12 years. Additionally, Pittman has caught more than 6 passes only twice this season. He is a risky WR3 at best.
