North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell has long been considered a potential top quarterback in the 2022 NFL Draft class. After a phenomenal freshman campaign gave way to a sensational sophomore season, Howell earned preseason adoration as a potential QB1 of this draft class. Yet, in the midst of a tumultuous year, sources close to Pro Football Network believe that the North Carolina QB may not even declare for the 2022 NFL Draft.
Sam Howell: Will he declare for the 2022 NFL Draft?
The 2022 NFL Draft class has provided more questions than answers. Everything we thought we knew back in August has been tipped on its head. Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler, a preseason QB1 and Heisman favorite, has been relegated to the Sooners’ sideline and is more likely to transfer than declare.
Meanwhile, Rattler’s closest contender for the preseason QB1 crown — North Carolina’s Howell — may be considering a return to Chapel Hill in 2022.
While discussing the 2022 NFL Draft quarterback class on the “Between the Hashes” podcast, PFN’s Chief Draft Analyst Tony Pauline revealed that there is potential uncertainty in Howell’s camp as to his future at the end of the 2021 college football season.
“I’m told that Sam Howell has made no decision, as of right now, as to what his next-level move is going to be,” Pauline said. “He’s in between whether he is going to go back for another year or enter the NFL Draft.”
Why would Sam Howell opt to return for his senior season?
Having earned preseason hype as an NFL Draft prospect, why would Howell return to North Carolina for the 2022 campaign? After all, in a murky quarterback class, he still has the potential to be a first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. The junior signal-caller has shown exceptional deep-ball accuracy, football intelligence, and competitive toughness during his college career.
However, it can be argued Howell hasn’t lived up to expectations this season. He struggled in his first game of the season against Virginia Tech, throwing 3 interceptions and completing only 53.1% of his passes. Furthermore, he threw for just 154 yards against Miami (FL.), his fewest since November 2019. Howell’s statistics, from completion percentage to interceptions, are all worse than his sophomore season.
There were always going to be some difficulties for Howell this year. When you lose a plethora of surrounding talent like North Carolina did this offseason, there will be some challenges to overcome. Yet, the best quarterbacks elevate their surrounding cast. Howell hasn’t been able to consistently do that this season, as Pauline alluded to.
“In the midst of a bit of a disappointing campaign, obviously lost four outstanding skill players,” said Pauline. “When I watch North Carolina, [Howell] shows flashes of what we expected him to be in 2021. But he can’t maintain.”
Could Howell return, break records, and regain his NFL Draft stock?
This season is the first time that Howell’s career hasn’t been on an upward trajectory. As a passing prodigy at Sun Valley, he set the North Carolina high school record for all-purpose yardage. His 13,415 passing yards were the second-most in state history.
Howell continued his record-setting ways on arrival to Chapel Hill. Howell’s 38 touchdowns in 2019 set a new ACC conference record for passing TDs by a freshman. With another 30 passing scores in 2020, he set the record for touchdowns through two seasons.
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Between 2019 and 2021, Howell has etched his name into North Carolina history. He was the first true freshman to start under center in Tar Heels program history. Moreover, he set program records for passing attempts, completions, yardage, and became the first freshman to throw 5 touchdowns in a single game.
The junior quarterback currently holds the school record in almost every conceivable passing metric. Before the end of this season, he’ll surpass 10,000 career passing yards, which leads the program. No other quarterback in North Carolina history has come close to Howell’s career passing touchdowns.
Could the Senior Bowl be a kingmaker for Howell?
However, Howell still doesn’t possess the single-season yardage record. That accolade belongs to Mitchell Trubisky, who parlayed his 3,748-yard 2016 campaign into being selected second overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. Perhaps Howell will return for the 2022 college football season, be surrounded by a more experienced receiving crew, break that record, and see his stock soar once more.
As Pauline points out, Howell still has the opportunity to solidify his stock at one of the premier college football All-Star games. “If he does enter the NFL Draft, he is Senior Bowl eligible because he’s on pace to graduate,” Pauline said. “So we may see him in the Senior Bowl if he decides to enter the draft.”
The Senior Bowl has long been considered a kingmaker for the quarterback position. In recent seasons, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Justin Herbert have solidified their draft stock in Mobile. Coincidentally, Howell’s stocky, tough demeanor and arm talent have long drawn lazy comparisons to former No. 1 overall pick Mayfield.
Howell could rock up in Mobile, wow NFL evaluators up close, and still earn a first-round selection. Right now, though, he doesn’t appear to have made a decision either way. “I’m told as far as Sam Howell is concerned, right now, no real definite decision or even leaning towards,” Pauline concludes. “Doesn’t know what he’s going to do at this point.”
