You’ve either come here to confirm it’s okay to start DK Metcalf in Week 6 or to confirm you’re not crazy to bench him in fantasy football. Which is it?! No, wait, don’t tell me. I’ll share my thoughts below, and you can tell me later which way you went.
Can Geno Smith feed DK Metcalf?
Heading into Week 5, Metcalf was on top of the fantasy world — or at least, almost. After teammate Tyler Lockett produced back-to-back top-10 WR performances to start the season, Metcalf earned two of his own top-10 efforts in Weeks 3 and 5. In fact, he has 4 touchdowns in his last three games. And, if not for Russell Wilson’s injury, Metcalf would be an obvious must-start until … well, until Wilson was no longer his quarterback.
That happened sooner than expected. In his 10th NFL season, Wilson is about to miss his first game. Enter former Jets second-rounder Geno Smith, who is on his fourth team since 2016 and has not started a game since 2017. He owns a career 30:37 TD:INT ratio while averaging a pick on 4% of his passes — nearly halfway between Brock Osweiler (2.7%) and Ryan Leaf (5.5%).
To understand Metcalf’s potential, we have to understand Smith’s potential. And neither looks promising heading to Pittsburgh Sunday night. There is a real chance what we saw in the fourth quarter of Seattle’s last game — when Smith replaced Wilson — will carry over into Week 6. In that contest, Smith went 10-for-17 with 131 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Yes, he found Metcalf three times, including a 23-yard touchdown strike. For some fantasy managers, that would be sufficient “evidence” to trust Metcalf.
But not this guy (I’m pointing at myself). I’m not only a fantasy writer — I’m also a fantasy manager, just like you. I wake up in the morning, just like you. I throw up at the thought of Brussels sprouts, just like you.
And as a fantasy manager, I’m steering clear of Metcalf and Lockett for the foreseeable future.
What can we expect from Metcalf in Week 6?
Now don’t get me wrong — Metcalf should crack the top 30 based on volume alone. But the top 20? He would need roughly a 7-70 performance or better, based on fantasy outputs the past couple of weeks. I think that’s his ceiling, not his floor. As with many great fantasy wideouts, Metcalf’s recent dominance is due to an above-average touchdown rate. Regression should have been expected even if Wilson were still at QB. But with Smith at the helm, the odds of Metcalf scoring drop significantly.
Fade Metcalf if you have another WR2 or even a high-upside sleeper like Amon-Ra St. Brown. And also, for the love of all that’s holy, fade Brussels sprouts.
