Six out of the last ten Offensive Rookie of the Year winners came from the quarterback position. Because five rookie quarterbacks are candidates for the 2021 award, it seems wise to key in on that position when deciding on this season’s winner. I will focus on who has the best NFL odds to win the 2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
Mac Jones has the best odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
When you have one of the best coaching minds controlling every aspect of the game, you have a great chance to do incredible things. Known for being one of the most meticulous game managers in the league, New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick leaves no stone unturned to gain a competitive advantage over his opponents.
This comes into play when considering quarterback Mac Jones for the best Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. You have to consider what the other candidates have going for them and against them. Jones is the best candidate with the clearest path to the playoffs — and a high win total.
Offensive reasoning
Wins are not a quarterback statistic, but they still affect voters’ decisions when it comes to OROY. Belichick’s innate ability to put his team in the best chance to win will maximize Jones’ skill set and potential. This will create plenty of opportunities for him to create explosive plays offensively, thus boosting his NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
Belichick’s previous quarterback, Tom Brady, was known for being efficient and deliberate in his decision-making. He wasn’t considered an explosive passer like Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers but has won more Super Bowls than both. The Patriots will most likely utilize a run-dominant offense with plenty of two-tight end sets for both protection and because they lack top-end wide receiver talent.
If Jones can replicate something similar to Dak Prescott’s OROY stats from 2016, I think he will win the award. Prescott threw for 3,667 yards while also finishing with 23 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
Now, I believe Jones will throw around 8-10 interceptions on the year. Nevertheless, if he can put up 3,500+ yards and 25+ touchdowns and lead the Patriots to a potential playoff spot, it will be enough for him to catapult to the top of the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
Defensive reasoning
Belichick has fielded multiple top-10 defenses during the duration of his time as the Patriots head coach. With all their 2020 defensive opt-outs returning this year, the Patriots have a legitimate chance to boast another top-10 unit.
Both safety Patrick Chung and linebacker Dont’a Hightower have been a part of three Super Bowl-winning teams in New England. They both opted out last year and will make their return for the 2021 season. Even with both starters missing last year, the Patriots still held opponents to the seventh-lowest points per game in 2020. Meanwhile, they held opposing quarterbacks to the eighth-lowest passing yards per game.
With a coach and defense that will keep the Patriots in games, Jones merely has to be a game manager. With plenty of positive field position from his defense, Jones can dink and dunk his way to scoring opportunities. Jones doesn’t seem the type to turn the ball over, which will also improve his Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
Jones’ competition for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
One of the biggest competitors for Jones to win the award comes from this year’s No. 1 overall pick. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence will have plenty of opportunities to throw the ball playing from behind all year long. The question will be whether Lawrence will also increase his turnovers due to the high volume he will likely see.
Lawrence and Jones may have similar stats to finish the season, but the Patriots’ success will be the deciding factor. Considering Lawrence’s NFL odds are currently +350 versus Jones’ +550, I’ll take the quarterback with a higher team potential. (These odds are current as of Wednesday, September 1.)
The rest of the competitors fall under the same category as Lawrence. Zach Wilson will amass less than six wins, Justin Fields may not see the field until Week 8, while Trey Lance will split time with Jimmy Garoppolo. Considering the hurdles the other candidates have to overcome, Jones seems like the best option.
Closing thoughts
Jones has a better offensive line than Lawrence and a better defense. In regard to overall skill, Jones isn’t that far off from Lawrence and should be able to put up similar numbers. While Lawrence will not only have to adjust to NFL speed, he’ll also have to deal with the rookie blunders head coach Urban Meyer will commit.
Although his 2021 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds have dropped significantly since he was announced the starter in Foxborough, Jones still presents the best opportunity to bring home the award. With an above-average offensive year, Jones will have all the benefits from being a New England Patriot. Take him at +550 to win the 2021 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
