Sam Darnold has authored one of the most improbable career arcs the NFL has ever seen. He went from a punchline in New York to a 14-win season in Minnesota to a Super Bowl champion in Seattle. The real-life résumé now looks nothing like the one he carried five years ago. Fantasy football is a different question entirely.
Should You Draft Sam Darnold in Fantasy Football?
Darnold is a two-time Pro Bowler and a one-time Super Bowl winner over the past two seasons.
His current ADP is 197.8. His PFN rank is a little higher at 179. His projected points per game this coming year is just 13.75, and he ranks as the preseason QB24. In my opinion, all of those projections seem a little low for him.
This is a QB who has quietly had two straight seasons as a top-14 fantasy QB. Last year, he was fifth in PFN QB Impact with a grade of 82.5. He was fourth in completion percentage over expectation with a rate of 5.1%, and his on-target rate of 79.8% was third overall in the entire NFL. He’s been fifth in passing yards in each of the last two seasons. He was fifth in passing touchdowns in 2024 and ninth in passing TDs in 2025.
In his resurrected form, Darnold’s passing volume is ultra reliable, and he now has one of the league’s best receivers in Jaxon Smith-Njigba to rely on. On top of that, the weapons corps is very deep across the board. You’ve got Cooper Kupp, Tory Horton, Rashid Shaheed, up-and-coming tight end AJ Barner, and Elijah Arroyo, who has some explosive potential as well. You also factor in Darnold’s offensive line, which ranked 11th in PFN OL Impact last year and returns all five starters to the fold.
The big question mark is the scheme with Klint Kubiak’s departure, but the incoming OC is an experienced offensive coach under Kyle Shanahan. He spent time with Kubiak in San Francisco a few years ago, and he’s already said that the scheme will remain similar and play to Darnold’s strengths overall.
There are a few issues or elements that are diluting Darnold’s upside a little bit. Seattle’s run-pass split was just above 50% last year, 30th in the league. Seattle’s elite defense will keep the team in more neutral and positive game scripts, which keeps Darnold’s volume from reaching the ranks of the elite.
He’s a functional athlete but a nondescript rushing threat, which also limits his rushing upside for fantasy purposes. On top of that, turnovers have been an issue for Darnold. He totaled 26 interceptions across the 2024 and 2025 seasons and led the NFL with 11 fumbles in 2025.
Ultimately, though, Darnold, in my opinion, is a gutsy, accurate point man with quick-game efficiency and an active desire and ability to hit the big play when it becomes available. He offers more stability as a volume passing producer than several other options ranked ahead of him on the list, including Malik Willis, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and C.J. Stroud. I would take Darnold above all the aforementioned names as a low-cost potential starter and a high-end QB2 in redraft leagues, and a sale-priced starting asset in Superflex.
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Sam Darnold’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis provided by PFN Analyst Kyle Soppe.
Darnold is underrated by the football-watching public, but not in a way that really matters for our purposes. Seattle won the Super Bowl last season and asked Darnold to simply keep the train on the tracks, and I see no reason to assume a pivot of any kind.
The ’Hawks ranked 31st in pass rate when trailing or tied, so even if you think there is some slippage in team success (this week or this season), there’s no guarantee that it means much in terms of Darnold’s fantasy stocks.
Last season, he averaged 38.4% fewer fantasy points when facing a team that went on to make the playoffs than teams who didn’t. The departure of Kenneth Walker III might result in some minor tweaks in offensive strategy, but it’s going to take far more than that to put him on our collective radar.
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Where Darnold Ranks Among 2026 Quarterbacks
- Tyler Shough | NO
- Malik Willis | MIA
- Baker Mayfield | TB
- Daniel Jones | IND
- C.J. Stroud | HOU
- Sam Darnold | SEA
- Cam Ward | TEN
- Bryce Young | CAR
- Jacoby Brissett | ARI
- Aaron Rodgers | PIT
- Geno Smith | NYJ
Want more? PFN’s 2026 PPR Rankings have 200+ players ranked.
