Matthew Stafford enters the 2026 fantasy football season as the reigning NFL MVP, coming off an incredible campaign that saw him finish as fantasy’s QB2 without any rushing equity. Despite those accolades, there are underlying metrics that suggest massive regression is on the horizon, making his evaluation complicated.
Should I Draft Matthew Stafford in Fantasy Football?
The primary concern is how heavily his 2025 production relied on unsustainably elite efficiency in close quarters. The Rams generated a staggering 76 red zone drives last season, a mark that led the league and is far from repeatable. He accounted for 16 touchdown passes from inside the 5-yard line, production that could easily tail off.
He was the only player in the league to even hit double figures in that category, a massive outlier compared to the mere four such touchdowns he threw in 2024. When you combine that inevitable touchdown regression with the fact that he is a quarterback with absolutely no rushing upside to speak of, his weekly fantasy floor becomes far more fragile in reality than it was last year.
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I also worry that there is some C.J. Stroud in this fantasy profile. While Stafford is undeniably talented, this could easily become a situation featuring a single star wide receiver and an elite defense that simply doesn’t require him to put up video game passing numbers to win games.
Unsurprisingly, his ADP is all over the place across different platforms. I certainly wouldn’t overextend for him at his elevated price tag on ESPN, but his draft cost is much more manageable in other spots. If he falls to a reasonable range as a late-round value, that’s where you could sell me on drafting him, but I’m not reaching.
In essence, there’s no reason for you to buy his 2025 as repeatable, but the wind has blowing away from him in draft rooms (in some spots) this summer and if that continues, it’s pretty easy to make the case for him as a late round option with a reasonably high floor as a part of an elite team.
Kyle Soppe’s QB Fantasy Rankings 2026
- Josh Allen | BUF
- Drake Maye | NE
- Joe Burrow | CIN
- Lamar Jackson | BAL
- Jayden Daniels | WAS
- Caleb Williams | CHI
- Justin Herbert | LAC
- Jalen Hurts | PHI
- Jaxson Dart | NYG
- Trevor Lawrence | JAX
- Dak Prescott | DAL
- Bo Nix | DEN
- Patrick Mahomes II | KC
- Brock Purdy | SF
- Matthew Stafford | LAR
- Jared Goff | DET
- Kyler Murray | MIN
- Jordan Love | GB
- Baker Mayfield | TB
- Tyler Shough | NO
- Malik Willis | MIA
- Daniel Jones | IND
- C.J. Stroud | HOU
- Sam Darnold | SEA
- Bryce Young | CAR
- Jacoby Brissett | ARI
- Cam Ward | TEN
- Aaron Rodgers | PIT
- Fernando Mendoza | LV
- Justin Fields | KC
- Kirk Cousins | LV
- Geno Smith | NYJ
