You’re not going to win a fantasy football championship because you nailed your first-round pick.
Don’t get me wrong, starting with a win is certainly helpful, but you won’t be alone in getting Grade A production from a Grade A player. The manager holding the bag at the end of the season will be the one who evaluated risk properly, drafted in a sharp way, and managed through adversity.
That last part is on you. Right now, we can only help you with the first two and by locking in players like the ones mentioned below, I believe you position yourself for success at the highest level in 2026.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
- ESPN ADP: 26th overall
- Sleeper ADP: 25th overall
- My Rank: 12th overall
Collins is entering his age-27 season and is an unquestioned WR1 at the NFL level. He’s cleared 1,000 receiving yards in each of the past three seasons and hauled in 21 touchdowns over that stretch despite nine DNPs; this is a profile I’m going to be early on rather than late in terms of his “takeover-the-NFL” season.
He’s #good at the game. That’s an important first step, and while it may seem obvious, it’s important to highlight his skills before getting into the upside case.
- PPR Points Over Expectation: 1st
- Targets Per Route: 2nd
- Red Zone Target Rate: 4th
Those rankings are for WRs with at least 250 targets over the past three seasons. Within the ecosystem, he’s the only player on the board to average at least 12.0 air yards per target and 5.0 yards per catch after the reception.
If someone is going to add a chair to that table atop the position, they need to be a well-rounded threat with the ability to produce in a variety of ways, and there is no question that Collins does just that.
His late-second-round ADP is weighed down by missed time in the past (I’m way more willing to roll the dice in that regard at this position and at this draft slot than on a Christian McCaffrey type in Round 1) and some concerns over the upside of C.J. Stroud.
Is that fair?
C.J. Stroud: When Throwing Past The Sticks
- 2024: 75.6 rating
- 2025: 95.5 rating
I haven’t even mentioned that Jayden Higgins has been lost for the season (the Kayshon Boutte doesn’t scare me in the slightest and could actually boost his value give that he was a reasonable vertical threat with the Patriots last season) or that David Montgomery is the perfect add to this offense for those of us who continue to bet on Collins: a running back without tremendous upside, but one who can keep this offense on schedule.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Denver Broncos
- ESPN ADP: 52nd overall
- Sleeper ADP: 47th overall
- My Rank: 28th overall
We’ve seen Jaylen Waddle do a bit of everything through five seasons. He’s had a 100-catch season (something only seven players did in 2025), an 18-yard-per-catch season (Alec Pierce was the only member of that club last year), and a season averaging north of 2.2 PPR points per target (Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2025: 2.20).
I’ve heard it argued that he’s one of those “jack of all trades, master of none” receivers, and that could be right. But it also might not be, and I’m willing to jump the line to bet on this system and the route freedom he should have in what could be a sneaky top-10 offense.
We know the pieces to the puzzle are on the table, and now we have a situation where he can flourish in a creative offense with a QB on an upward trajectory. He was stuck in Miami (24th in points per drive and 26th in offensive EPA over the past two seasons), but now he has Sean Payton’s buy-in (they sent three 2026 picks to the ’Fins in this trade) in an offense that flashed tremendous potential as Bo Nix’s development picked up.
The only case against smashing Waddle at his current cost, I suppose, would be the number of options in this Denver receiver room. I don’t think that’s wrong (Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant are interesting long-term options), but I do think an overindexing of Courtland Sutton is giving us a nice discount.
Sutton is a solid player; he’s not Waddle. We saw his target rate and yards per route run dip in Year 2 of the Nix experience, signs that are being overlooked in favor of raw counting numbers that were as much the product of limited competition last season.
Even with the situation working in his favor (limited push from his teammates and growth under center), Sutton was outside of the top 24 receivers just as often as he was inside of it. This slides him where he belongs in an offense and leaves the door wide open for Waddle to post the type of season we thought possible when we watched him dominate the college ranks.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
- ESPN ADP: 58th overall
- Sleeper ADP: 55th overall
- My Rank: 38th overall
I mentioned Swift as a target of mine earlier this summer, and I see zero reason to pivot. Check out my Top Fantasy Football Targets piece for the nitty-gritty on him and others (Tucker Kraft is another name on that list and this one, but that list gets creative with players like Jakobi Meyers and Tank Bigsby as well), but it’s essentially a bet on the creativity of Ben Johnson.
He nearly doubled the play-action rate from where Chicago stood in 2024, and in order for it to be effective, the opposition has to fear the ground game.
TL:DR … I want exposure to this offense and while the targets have to be divided a bunch of ways, I believe that Swift can dominate the backfield role and elevate to a level that the industry is clearly not seeing.
Jordan Mason, RB, Minnesota Vikings
- ESPN ADP: 136th overall
- Sleeper ADP: 117th overall
- My Rank: 79th overall
Aaron Jones is 31 years old with over 2,000 touches on his NFL resume and is in the final year of his deal. It wasn’t a surprise when we got reports about Mason likely leading this backfield, and yet, the industry hasn’t moved a ton.
The general sentiment is that Mason will be the two-down back with the savvy Jones operating in space as a pass catcher. That’s an acceptable train of thought to open the season, but I don’t think his ADP reflects the chance for him to shine in that role and make it hard to the Vikings to take him off the field.
Mason is four years his junior and is in an evaluation spot with his contract expiring at season’s end. The dynamic ability of Kyler Murray stands to open up running lanes, and in what glimpses we’ve seen from Mason to date, that has the potential to turn him into a player you’re locking into your flex spot before Halloween.
For his career, Mason has produced 11.2% above per-touch expectations. He’s been able to sustain his efficient ways thanks to averaging north of three yards per carry after first contact in every season.
This Vikings line has been a liability in each of the past three years (all bottom-10 in terms of Offensive Line Impact), but again, a bet on Mason is a bet on this offense as a whole, and that means a rebound from Murray—a QB that changes how defenses scheme.
Minnesota’s post-Thanksgiving schedule has the potential to be as favorable as any in the game, yet another feather in the cap of a running back going outside of the top 100 picks.
Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers
- ESPN ADP: 78th overall
- Sleeper ADP: 65th overall
- My Rank: 59th overall
This is exactly why tiering players is important.
In terms of industry consensus, Kraft is being drafted as the TE5. I have him ranked as TE4 and can very much understand how the field settles where it has.
But the overall ranking that these sites give him is tough for me to grasp, even with him self-reporting that we could see his usage ramp up through October before he is truly unleashed.
We all agree that Trey McBride and Brock Bowers are Tier 1 options at the position and demand high-end draft capital. The second tier, across the board, includes Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren. For me, that’s where Kraft belongs, whereas the drafting public is slotting him into the third tier with names like Kyle Pitts and Sam LaPorta.
That may sound like a small distinction, but we are talking 20–25 picks in terms of the overall rankings, and that’s huge.
Kraft was third at the position in PPG (min. eight games played) last season, and with positive reports coming out of Green Bay in terms of health, I’m struggling to find reasons why he can’t repeat.
From Weeks 4–8, this unique weapon accounted for 25.7% of Packer pass-catcher points, a signal that he has the potential to function as the WR1 in this offense. Even if you’re skeptical in assuming that, the departures of Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs certainly give him the potential to sustain and extend that role for an entire season.
We are looking at getting ahead on a player who could be a version of peak George Kittle as we get past Halloween: I don’t want to speak for you, but that’s something I want access to, and I’ll pay up to get it if I have to.
Isaiah Likely, TE, New York Giants
- ESPN ADP: 117th overall
- Sleeper ADP: 111th overall
- My Rank: 88th overall
Everyone wants to bet on the Giants, but no one wants to do it via a onesie position that allows you to start a late-round pick from the jump?
That’s fine, more shares for me. Paying up for a TE is a viable strategy given the stardom at the top of the board, but the premium you have to pay results in some roster construction hurdles. If you don’t go that route, Likely is the low-risk option that you should be considering, if not outright planning on acquiring.
Jaxson Dart ranked 28th in passer rating last season when throwing to or past the sticks and 5th when taking the less aggressive approach short of the chains.
New York is clearly interested in improving the former (Malik Nabers returning will help, and the Darius Slayton/Darnell Mooney duo is threatening defenses in one way), but in order to do so, the short pass game needs to remain lethal.
Enter Likely, the ninth-best TE after the catch since he was selected in the fourth round by the Ravens (34 qualifiers).
We’ve begged for him to get the opportunity to thrive for years, and the path is now clear. He’s averaged 12 PPR points per game when running north of 20 routes for his career, a figure that would have slotted him as TE6 last season.
With Wan’Dale Robinson out of town, I think we get PPR scam weeks to elevate Likely’s floor in addition to the big weeks that can come when tethered to an offense on the up-and-up.
I’ve got him ranked as a Week 1 fantasy starter, and I expect that to be the industry norm by the time we get into October.
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