Devin Singletary’s fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

Embarking on his third season in the NFL, Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary hopes to take a step forward in 2021 and assume control of what has become a mind-numbing timeshare. Could this mean success for fantasy football managers looking to select Singletary at his current mid-round ADP, or does his fantasy outlook suggest another year of frustration?

Devin Singletary’s fantasy outlook for 2021

Coming off a successful but injury-shortened rookie season, hopes were high for Singletary. In 12 games, he averaged 70.8 yards on 15 touches per game. Then, the team drafted Zack Moss. From that point on, Singletary was doomed for the inevitable timeshare that would follow.

Singletary led the Bills’ backfield in 2020, rushing 156 times (53.8% rush share) for 687 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also received a healthy target share of 8.8% (50), resulting in 35 receptions (76% catch rate) for 269 yards. Playing in all 16 games, Singletary was the RB31 in PPR formats but was 42nd in points per game at 9. 

Singletary’s inefficiency hurts his ceiling

In addition, Singletary was relatively inefficient, ranking 80th in fantasy points per opportunity at 0.70. In Fantasy Points Differential, which compares a player’s expected fantasy points versus their output, Singletary’s -16% was RB78 in 2020.

He has recorded RB2 or better numbers just 35.7% of the time, which is shockingly low for a running back who averaged 14.2 opportunities per game.

If you are going to be in a timeshare, you have to make the most of your opportunities. Of course, it doesn’t help to come in 54th in reception percentage (minimum 15 targets), with a paltry 0.2 aDOT (average depth of target). Throw in converting only 1 of his 20 red-zone carries for a score, and the concerning stats are starting to pile up for Singletary when it comes to his fantasy outlook.

While they did not draft a running back, GM Brandon Beane did bring in added competition after stating that the backs on the Bills’ roster “aren’t home run hitters.” The team signed Matt Breida, who in Week 4 of 2019 — according to NFL Next Gen Stats — generated the fastest touchdown run over the last four years at 22.3 mph.

Without the much-needed red-zone work and likely to see fewer opportunities in 2021, Singletary will struggle to find any weekly success outside of low-end flex consideration.

Fantasy projection

I think the Bills showed us who they really are last season — legitimate Super Bowl contenders. You don’t mess around, go 13-3, win the AFC East for the first time since 1995, and change the formula. 

The Bills went from a 54.9% pass rate in 2019 (26th) to a pass-happy 61.7% in 2020 (11th). It was a complete shift in philosophy. As a result, opportunities for the running backs were drastically slashed. 

Last season, Singletary averaged 9.8 carries, 3.1 targets, and 59.7 total yards per game. However, given the outlook for the Bills and the addition of Breida, it’s unlikely to see this increase in 2021. 

Singletary could see around 130-135 rushes for 580-610 yards and 3 touchdowns. Additionally, he can register 28-33 receptions for around 260 yards and another score based on early projections.

Devin Singletary’s ADP

According to Sleeper, Singletary currently has an ADP of 113.4 in half-PPR. In superflex formats, where QBs see an increased value, his ADP is 137.7. Additionally, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Singletary’s ADP is 121.34 and his ADP on Fleaflicker is 110.

Should you draft Devin Singletary in 2021 for fantasy?

It is hard for me to recommend drafting any Bills RB in 2021 for fantasy, but it depends on what you are asking out of them. Neither Singletary nor Moss will be reliable starters, but that should not be the expectation.

Singletary has some appeal as a low upside bye week fill-in for your flex positions in PPR leagues. However, the only way I see him being someone who could be a weekly starter would be due to an injury to Moss. The way things stand, they cut into each other’s value too much. 

Singletary is capable of big plays, but the lack of usage in the red zone caps his fantasy upside. Still, he is worth a slot on your bench in an emergency unless his situation changes.