Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Projection 2026: Is the Lions Receiver Worth a First-Round Pick?

Amon-Ra St. Brown has finished WR4 three straight seasons and led the league in red zone targets. Is the Lions receiver worth a first-round pick in 2026?

When fantasy football managers talk about not losing their league in the first round of drafts, they’re talking about guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Detroit Lions WR1 is a model of consistency; a perennial top-five finisher at the position. Will 2026 be more of the same?

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Should You Draft Amon-Ra St. Brown in Fantasy Football?

It was a classic progression for St. Brown. He had a solid rookie season that saw his production surge in the second half. Then, he took a big step forward as a sophomore, posting 16.7 fantasy points per game. After that, it was your classic year-three breakout.

St. Brown’s best year remains that 2023 season when he averaged 20.7 PPG, finishing as the overall WR4. Since then, he’s posted seasons of 18.6 and 19.1 PPG, finishing as the WR4 both times. That’s now three straight seasons as exactly the WR4.

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Any negatives about St. Brown are purely nitpicking. He’s one of the most talented wide receivers in the game. He always plays, having missed just two games in his entire career. His target share has eclipsed 30% in two of the past three seasons, and last year, he was targeted on a whopping 31.6% of his routes run, third in the league.

One of the most appealing aspects of St. Brown’s profile is the number of layup targets he gets. Last year, his aDOT was just 8.1. Of course, downfield targets are beneficial because they open the door to splash plays.

We like fantasy points in bunches. But St. Brown’s volume is assured, so the short targets aren’t a problem. He consistently racks up the PPR volume, as evidenced by him catching 115+ passes in three straight seasons. Add in the fact that he actually led the league in red zone targets last season, and this is a recipe for fantasy football success.

St. Brown’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value

If there is one knock on St. Brown’s profile, it’s that he lacks truly legendary upside. We’ve almost certainly already seen his best season, that being the 20.7 PPG in 2023. It’s just very difficult to envision how he can do any better than 119 receptions for 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Of course, there’s nothing wrong with 18-20 PPG every season. You can take that to the bank. Even in a down year for the Lions offense and a season where St. Brown seemingly committed one egregious drop every week (he had anywhere from 7-10 drops depending on the source), he was still a top-five fantasy receiver.

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This season, the Lions should rebound offensively with a new offensive coordinator. This remains a consolidated offense with the vast majority of the touches funneling through Jahmyr Gibbs and St. Brown. Detroit plays most of its games in a dome, making weather not an issue. There’s just a lot to like about taking St. Brown in the first round.

Generally, I don’t want to take players in Round 1 that lack game-breaking upside. St. Brown is an exception. His WR4 ADP is exactly where I have him ranked. The main difference is I would confidently take him at No. 6 overall after the clear big five of Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are off the board.

Preseason Fantasy WR Rankings

  1. Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
  2. Puka Nacua | LAR
  3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
  4. Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
  5. Drake London | ATL
  6. Justin Jefferson | MIN
  7. CeeDee Lamb | DAL
  8. Nico Collins | HOU
  9. A.J. Brown | NE
  10. Malik Nabers | NYG
  11. George Pickens | DAL
  12. Chris Olave | NO
  13. Rashee Rice | KC
  14. Zay Flowers | BAL
  15. Jaylen Waddle | DEN
  16. Tee Higgins | CIN
  17. DeVonta Smith | PHI
  18. Ladd McConkey | LAC
  19. Terry McLaurin | WAS
  20. Emeka Egbuka | TB
  21. Tetairoa McMillan | CAR
  22. Garrett Wilson | NYJ
  23. Jameson Williams | DET
  24. Christian Watson | GB
  25. Luther Burden III | CHI
  26. Rome Odunze | CHI
  27. Parker Washington | JAX
  28. Carnell Tate | TEN
  29. DJ Moore | BUF
  30. Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI
  31. Davante Adams | LAR
  32. Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX
  33. Quentin Johnston | LAC
  34. Mike Evans | SF
  35. Stefon Diggs | WAS
  36. Michael Wilson | ARI
  37. DK Metcalf | PIT
  38. Jakobi Meyers | JAX
  39. Josh Downs | IND
  40. Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT
  41. Jayden Reed | GB
  42. Courtland Sutton | DEN
  43. Wan’Dale Robinson | TEN
  44. Chris Godwin Jr. | TB
  45. Alec Pierce | IND
  46. Makai Lemon | PHI
  47. Jordan Addison | MIN
  48. De’Zhaun Stribling | SF
  49. Khalil Shakir | BUF
  50. Romeo Doubs | NE

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