Rashee Rice Fantasy Projection 2026: Should You Draft the Chiefs WR After Controversial Offseason?

There’s no denying the high level of production Rashee Rice provides whenever healthy. His role in the Kansas City Chiefs offense works, and he excels at it. But the underlying data reveals concerns that fantasy football managers need to be aware of before pushing the button on Rice in 2026 fantasy drafts.

Should You Draft Rashee Rice in Fantasy Football?

There’s no denying that what Rice does works for fantasy and, I guess, the Chiefs. In his three healthy games in 2024, Rice averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game. Last season, Rice averaged 18.8 PPG. Across his last 11 healthy games, Rice has five games with 20+ fantasy points and another three at 17+. A healthy Rice in the role he’s had the past two seasons is a fantasy WR1.

Last season, Rice’s target share was 28.7%. Most importantly, he was targeted on 30.2% of his routes run. He averaged 2.21 yards per route run, 15th in the league, and his 0.109 first downs per route run ranked 14th. Rice was a very effective chain mover and served as Patrick Mahomes’ safety blanket.

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This is, of course, by design. Behind Rice, the Chiefs had an injured Xavier Worthy and then a bunch of journeymen veterans or unproven young players. Travis Kelce was 35 years old last season. Rice is clearly their best wide receiver. Thus, it should not be a surprise he has so many targets manufactured for him. But therein lies the risk.

Rice’s entire production stems from manufactured targets. He is one of the worst wide receivers in the league against man coverage. The man simply cannot get open. Last season, he averaged a paltry 0.91 yards per route run against man.

The only thing Rice does well is find holes in the zone. Well, what happens if teams stop playing zone against the Chiefs? According to Matt Harmon’s reception perception, Rice’s success rate against man coverage ranked in the 9th percentile.

Rice’s aDOT was 4.3 last season. It’s really hard to put into words how low that is. He was almost outside the top 100. Rice’s ability to get open extends to slants, screens, and flares. He can’t do anything else at an NFL level.

Essentially, what this means is that the entirety of Rice’s value stems from the Chiefs continuing to manufacture touches for him. Rice’s talent is not the driver of his production; the role is. That is a scary proposition to bet on in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts.

Rice’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value

It’s pretty safe to say Rice is not a particularly special player. He’s the guy with the role, and the role is great as long as it lasts. By way of example, if you swapped Rice with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins would be the unquestioned alpha on the Bengals, and Rice would likely be a fantasy WR3. If we’re ranking real-life wide receivers based purely on talent, I am not sure Rice cracks the top 30.

With that said, look at the Chiefs’ depth chart this season. Worthy should be better now that he’s not dealing with a torn labrum in his shoulder, but he’s not as good as Rice. Kelce is 36 years old. Their other wide receivers are Tyquan Thornton, Jalen Royals, and Cyrus Allen. There’s no threat to Rice’s role or status as the clear WR1.

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Last season, over 50% of Rice’s routes came at or near the line of scrimmage. That’s not ideal because downfield targets result in splash plays, which score more fantasy points quickly. But it is ideal because the Chiefs know his limitations and don’t ask him to do things he’s not good at.

For 2026, fantasy managers need not concern themselves with what Rice can’t do. He’s going to have the same role he’s had for the past two seasons.

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Now, there is added concern with his offseason knee procedure and the fact that he had to spend a month in jail. Plus, we have the issue of Mahomes’ health returning from a torn ACL. However, by all accounts, both Mahomes and Rice should be ready for Week 1.

Rice’s ADP is WR12. A healthy Rice has been an unquestioned top-eight fantasy wide receiver for the past two seasons. There’s not necessarily a reason to think this year will be much different. But Rice’s talent does not command targets. His targets come from the decisions of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. That is a shaky investment to make in the second round.

Preseason Fantasy WR Rankings

1. Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2. Puka Nacua | LAR
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5. Drake London | ATL
6. Justin Jefferson | MIN
7. CeeDee Lamb | DAL
8. Nico Collins | HOU
9. A.J. Brown | NE
10. Malik Nabers | NYG
11. George Pickens | DAL
12. Chris Olave | NO
13. Rashee Rice | KC
14. Zay Flowers | BAL
15. Jaylen Waddle | DEN
16. Tee Higgins | CIN
17. DeVonta Smith | PHI
18. Ladd McConkey | LAC
19. Terry McLaurin | WAS
20. Emeka Egbuka | TB
21. Tetairoa McMillan | CAR
22. Garrett Wilson | NYJ
23. Jameson Williams | DET
24. Christian Watson | GB
25. Luther Burden III | CHI
26. Rome Odunze | CHI
27. Parker Washington | JAX
28. Carnell Tate | TEN
29. DJ Moore | BUF
30. Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI
31. Davante Adams | LAR
32. Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX
33. Quentin Johnston | LAC
34. Mike Evans | SF
35. Stefon Diggs | WAS
36. Michael Wilson | ARI
37. DK Metcalf | PIT
38. Jakobi Meyers | JAX
39. Josh Downs | IND
40. Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT
41. Jayden Reed | GB
42. Courtland Sutton | DEN
43. Wan’Dale Robinson | TEN
44. Chris Godwin Jr. | TB
45. Alec Pierce | IND
46. Makai Lemon | PHI
47. Jordan Addison | MIN
48. De’Zhaun Stribling | SF
49. Khalil Shakir | BUF
50. Romeo Doubs | NE