‘They’re Playing CFB’s Version of Moneyball’ — Analyst Picks First SEC Coach to Get Fired From Hot Seat Coaches List

Anwar Richardson says Brent Venables tops his SEC hot seat list and also explains what could put Steve Sarkisian under pressure in 2026.

The 2025 season brought major coaching shakeups, with big names like James Franklin and Brian Kelly losing their jobs, while others, including Mike Norvell, managed to hold on to theirs.

Heading into the 2026 season, the pressure remains just as intense, with several prominent SEC head coaches already facing questions about their job security.

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Steve Sarkisian, Brent Venables Among SEC Coaches on the Hot Seat

Michael Bratton asked analyst Anwar Richardson to identify which SEC head coach would be the first to lose his job among Steve Sarkisian, Mike Elko, and Brent Venables.

Richardson chose Venables, despite the Oklahoma coach easing much of the pressure with a successful 2025 campaign. The Sooners finished 10-3 before their season came to an end with a 34-24 loss to Alabama in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

“Venables… because then if they fall off a cliff, then Oklahoma’s got decisions to make,” Richardson said. “They could fall off, and they have a tough schedule. So, the thing about Oklahoma is that just last year they had good success. But we’ll have to see how far Moneyball goes in the SEC because that’s kind of what they’re doing.

“They’re playing a little bit of college football’s version of Moneyball, in which everybody else is going to spend a lot of money on these particular guys, and we’re going to find these diamonds in the rough.

“When we start talking about the NFL draft and all the SEC players who are selected, you start looking at the teams. It’s really hard if you’re just going to try to find diamonds in the rough.”

Oklahoma earned a big shift with a bunch of momentum last season with several impressive victories, including wins over Michigan (24-13), Tennessee (33-27), and Alabama (23-21), before ultimately falling to the Crimson Tide in the CFP.

However, the Sooners face another demanding SEC schedule in 2026, and expectations remain sky-high as the program continues adjusting to the conference.

Looking ahead to the season, Venables acknowledged that the circumstances are different but insisted his overall approach remains unchanged. However, a disappointing season may reignite questions about his long-term future. According to PFN’s CFB Playoff Meter, Oklahoma has a 24.3% chance of reaching the 2026 College Football Playoff.

Richardson also explained why Sarkisian could eventually face scrutiny at Texas.

“I think the only thing that becomes a question mark for any of the decision-makers at Texas is: Let’s say this team does not make the playoffs,” Richardson said. “If they don’t make the playoffs, then they have to decide. They have to decide on their team. This is six years since we’ve given this experiment.

“You don’t give a guy 10 years to figure it out. It’s just not what happens. And then you guys have seen the SEC coaches have really, really complained about James Franklin, and him getting fired last season.”

READ MORE: ‘If I’m 7-5, I’m Miserable’: Lane Kiffin Reveals How ‘Lower Expectations’ at Ole Miss Convinced Him to Take LSU Job

Texas started last season as the preseason No. 1 team, but the 14-7 loss to Ohio State was brutal. The Longhorns couldn’t win the CFP, but they finished with a 10-3 overall record.

However, another postseason miss in 2026 may intensify questions about Sarkisian’s future, particularly after Penn State fired Franklin midway through last season following a 3-3 start despite his previous CFP success.

PFN currently gives Texas a 67.9% chance of making the 2026 College Football Playoff.

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