This is an annual game that we play. The data from last season certainly matters, but not a single one of those points is going to show up in your 2026 fantasy football box score, making it important to wipe the slate clean and dive in.
Here are some players I believe are being valued too highly this year based on what occurred last season, compared to what is most likely to occur over the next 4–5 months.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Football is a hard game, and putting up insane fantasy football numbers on a consistent basis is even more difficult. It’s very possible to play great and not put up numbers the way Jaxon Smith-Njigba did for the Super Bowl champion Seahawks last season. That’s a fact. Skill, of course, is the driving factor in these outlier seasons, but even the best in the sport run hot at times. Asking JSN to repeat what he did a year ago, which is basically what you’re doing by locking him in as a Tier 1 flex player, is difficult.
Over the past five seasons, we’ve seen a WR outproduce expectations by at least 27% just 12 times (JSN in 2025: +28.4%), and no name is on that list twice. Starting with the biggest overachiever…
| Year | Player |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Brandon Aiyuk |
| 2021 | Deebo Samuel |
| 2023 | Nico Collins |
| 2021 | Ja’Marr Chase |
| 2021 | Tyler Lockett |
| 2024 | Terry McLaurin |
| 2025 | Puka Nacua |
| 2024 | Ladd McConkey |
| 2025 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
| 2021 | Mike Evans |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp |
Of course, your eyes are drawn to Puka Nacua also being on this list, but he plays for an offense with more projected pass volume, giving me confidence that any natural fall in efficiency can be offset to a degree by raw opportunity count.
I’m not the least bit confident that is the case in Seattle (28th in PROE last season). They spent first-round draft capital on a running back and had tremendous success with the “less-is-more” approach for Sam Darnold last season (did you know that, including the Super Bowl run, he didn’t have a 25-yard completion in four of his final five games?).
Seattle Rankings, 2025
- 3rd in yards per first-down play
- 2nd in opponent average drive distance
- 3rd in special teams EPA
Those things may not tie directly to their WR1, but they all factor in. The first-down success allows them to keep the defense on its toes, short opponent drives get the ball back to this offense within striking distance of the end zone, and special teams shorten the field. It’s not crazy to think that this team could take a step back in all of those categories this season. If that is the case, a 100-1130-6 season (what JSN posted in 2024) is much more likely than the video game 119-1793-10 line from a season ago.
Smith-Njigba is great; we know that, but history suggests that to operate as a Tier 1 receiver, you need help more often than not. Chase and Nacua have that support without a doubt, and I’d argue that Amon-Ra St. Brown does as well. Every ranking system is going to have a Big 5 this draft season… I’d be careful assuming it is as cut-and-dry as it seems: give me those first four as a clear cut above the rest of the field.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
The fantasy industry has done a good job, so far, of managing expectations. However, as August wears on and we continue to get great health news on the former MVP, I think there’s a good chance that managers look back at his QB4 finish from a season ago and make excuses to bump him up their rankings.
Be careful.
Having him outside of the top 10 at the position is logical even if he’s at full strength, and we are going to have to build in at least a slightly higher injury potential this season than in years prior.
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During his Hall of Fame career, there have been eight instances in which he’s scored +44% of his points on the ground, and five came last season (including three times in the first five weeks). He was effectively masking a roster that wasn’t exactly loaded with supporting talent, but coming off an ACL injury for a team that wants to peak late, I think it’s pretty hard to count on that level of rushing aggression sustaining.
In 2025, four Chiefs ran for at least 100 yards. Mahomes was one of them, and the other three all averaged under four yards per carry. This team had no consistency or explosion on the ground, forcing Playoff Mahomes to be activated in September.
Then they acquired Kenneth Walker III, a move that could make the 2026 Chiefs offense look completely different than any KC offense in recent memory.
Highest Rate of 10-Yard Rushes Since 2022 (min. 500 carries)
- De’Von Achane
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Jaylen Warren
- James Cook
- Bijan Robinson
- James Conner
- Nick Chubb
- Kenneth Walker III
- Christian McCaffrey
- Breece Hall
The limitations in the pass-catching corps have suppressed Mahomes’ efficiency for each of the past three seasons (his three lowest fantasy-points-per-pass seasons have come in succession), but fantasy managers haven’t really felt it because of his ability to impact the box score in a variety of ways.
Even if he can stop the slip and simply repeat what has been his new norm on a per-pass basis over the past three years, the decline in projectable rushing numbers is crippling. Rashee Rice is a strong WR1 for how the Andy Reid scheme functions, but I’m not sold on Travis Kelce (turning 37 in October) being much more than ordinary, and we can comfortably say that Xavier Worthy isn’t likely to return a profit on the Round 1 capital that was spent on him in 2024.
Then what?
Tyquan Thornton is pigeonholed into a role that defenses prioritize taking away against this team, and Jalen Royals carved out such a small niche last season that he gained just 12 feet on his 36 routes.
Yes, “feet.”
Cyrus Allen was a fifth-round pick in April who left college without a 55-catch season on his resume and was banged up early in camp.
If Mahomes is better than I think, it’s not likely to be in a major way. However, if the injury pops up or this offense leans into the run more than in years past, you could be left scrambling at the position. Right now, his price is fine, but if his ADP starts trending toward his impressive 2025 fantasy season, he’ll profile as a small-win, big-miss player, and that’s never the bet you want to make.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
This is going to continue to be a committee, but if you’re paying for 2025’s numbers with Stevenson, you’re setting yourself up for failure.
It’s simple logic. In the year following a draft where nice capital was spent on an explosive TreVeyon Henderson, Stevenson scores a career-high nine touchdowns, more than doubles his receiving output from the season prior, and ups his yards per carry by 17.9%.
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He was a nice story, just not a sustainable one in my opinion, and if he regresses, his role is likely to follow.
His 38.5% Elusive Rating a season ago was phenomenal, though he was under 29% in each of the two previous seasons, and that is more in line with what I’m expecting in 2026. Again: his ability to hold off Henderson last year was at least partly driven by his hyper-efficient production, and if that disappears, I think the lead role goes with it.
Henderson had just one double-digit carry game through the middle of October last year. I’m comfortable betting on that changing, which means Stevenson will very much struggle to get anywhere close to his yardage total (948) or his TD total from 2025.
Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Cleveland Browns
To be clear, I’m in on the talent of Fannin, but the industry is asking for him to repeat, if not build on, his 72-731-6 rookie season.
Betting on a Browns offense that lacks stability under center is scary by itself. Drafting Fannin ahead of TEs who have Jared Goff, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott under center means that managers are viewing him as a far and away superior talent, a take I simply don’t agree with.
Cleveland added two rookie receivers in April (KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston), they have a high-volume back in Quinshon Judkins entering Year 2, and they are considering Deshaun Watson (last pass thrown in a real NFL game: October 20, 2024) their best bet to maximize this unit.
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I’m perfectly OK with zero shares of this offense, especially given the depth of the tight end position this season.
I don’t need a tie-breaker, but if you do, the schedule provides it. You miss out on the second Bengals game (Week 18) and get five of their last seven fantasy games at home in spots that could come with weather (and the road games are no picnic either: New York and Baltimore).
Fannin ran hot last season and NFL defenses didn’t pay him enough respect. That was profitable last season, but I’m taking my money out of that stock and investing elsewhere in 2026.
