Heading into the final year of his contract, Baker Mayfield is currently in a stalemate with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The former No. 1 overall pick has arguably outplayed his contract in Tampa Bay twice.
The first came when he inked a one-year, $4 million prove-it contract after bouncing around to three different teams in the previous two seasons. But Mayfield found his stride, earning his first Pro Bowl nod. That set him up to sign the three-year, $100 million contract he’s currently playing on. But now it’s time for a new deal.
Baker Mayfield Not Worth $50 Million Salary?
While Mayfield is set to play on an expiring contract, both he and the Buccaneers would rather avoid such a scenario. Ideally, the Bucs would get their franchise QB under contract for multiple years, giving the organization more long-term security.
The same could be said for Mayfield, wanting to secure more financial stability. Yet, Mayfield knows that a strong season in 2026 could set him up to become one of the NFL’s highest-paid quarterbacks. However, one former NFL scout doesn’t think Mayfield’s worth the cost.
Recently, former NFL scout John Middlekauff stated his beliefs on his “3 and Out with John Middlekauff” podcast.
“This is tough,” Middlekauff said about Mayfield’s contract. “Once you learn that he was banged up so early in the season, honestly… it doesn’t give him a pass, but you don’t hold the [expletive] season next to him and his career the same. You do have to think big picture with this guy’s durability; he’s been injured in Cleveland. Do you feel comfortable giving him a contract? And the rate is kind of the rate, even though I hate that.”
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Middlekauff can’t help but wonder if the Bucs can strike some sort of “middle ground” in contract negotiations with Mayfield. While he acknowledges that Mayfield can catch fire and sustain excellent play, Middlekauff argues he’ll never be a “top-five QB.”
“So my question when it comes to Baker Mayfield, there’s gotta be some middle ground,” Middlekauff added. “He’s never going to be a top-5 quarterback. But when he’s humming, he is somewhere between 10 to 14, which means if you do a good job building your team, you’re gonna be in the playoffs, and if he’s on, you can win playoff games.”
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According to PFN’s QB Impact Metric, since arriving in Tampa Bay, Mayfield has only finished one season (2024) as a top-five quarterback in the league. Last year, he was ranked 22nd with an impact score of 74.4.
“So, that to me is like three years, $120 million, $40 million a year. Guarantee like $100 million of it. Does he go, ‘I’m not playing for that?’ Well, if you’re not, then we just gotta play this thing out. Maybe prove me wrong. Throw 50 touchdowns, then I don’t have a choice.”
Ultimately, Middlekauff says there’s a sweet spot he’d advise the Buccaneers not to exceed. If negotiations soar past $150 million, Middlekauff advises that the Bucs walk away.
“I don’t see how you could extend him for anything more than $150 million,” Middlekauff argued. “I’m pro Baker Mayfield, been a huge fan forever. But there’s got to be some middle ground. That’s the problem with these quarterback contracts, which is why you pay Jason Licht a lot of money to figure it out.”
It’s true; the Bucs have a general manager for a reason. Licht has already negotiated two contracts with Mayfield, so getting a third done isn’t unreasonable; the question is how much it will cost and whether the QB thinks it’s a fair price point.
