Arch Manning showed enough potential during the second half of the 2025 season to convince many he could become the nation’s No. 1 quarterback in 2026 and potentially even become the No. 1 overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. While some, like former football star Jordan Rodgers, are still skeptical of Manning’s draft outlook and see a potential draft slide, outspoken analyst Stephen A. Smith isn’t buying the take.
Why Stephen A. Smith Believes Arch Manning Isn’t Falling Out of the Top 10
The 2027 NFL Draft class is projected to include several elite quarterback prospects, including Dante Moore, CJ Carr, and Trinidad Chambliss, along with elite non-quarterbacks. With so much talent expected in the class, some believe Manning’s draft stock could slide if he doesn’t take a big leap while other prospects continue to rise.
Rodgers also argued on ESPN’s “First Take” on Friday that Manning is more likely to fall outside the top 10 than become the No. 1 overall pick. Rodgers separated quarterback prospects into two categories, including players with rare physical gifts, like Anthony Richardson Sr., and highly efficient passers, like former Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
Rodgers believes Manning must become a more consistent and accurate quarterback to cement himself as a top-10 prospect, but Smith couldn’t disagree with Rodgers more.
“This is just the Mannings,” Smith said. “You understand what I’m saying? I mean, this is the first family of football. That’s what we’re talking about here. A Manning at the quarterback spot is falling out of the top 10 in what world? I mean, damn. He was a Heisman-leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy before he threw a pass last year.
“You already got him as a top 2 candidate for the Heisman this year. What do you think they’re going to do from a projectile standpoint? Projections for the National Football League, a Manning quarterback outside of the top 10 ain’t happening. Stop that nonsense. You know better than that.”
Manning enters the 2026 season after throwing for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns while adding 399 rushing yards and 10 rushing scores during his first full season as Texas’ QB1 in 2025.
Entering last season, he indeed carried huge expectations as a preseason Heisman favorite while leading a Texas team that opened the year ranked No. 1.
Like many first-year starters, Manning also experienced growing pains in early games, as he was 12-of-27 passing for 132 yards in Texas’ 16-13 win over Kentucky. Those struggles came while he was adjusting to the pressure that comes with carrying one of football’s most renowned family names.
According to PFN’s CFB QB Impact Metric, Manning posted an impact score of 83.1 last year, ranking 37th in the country.
However, Manning showed gradual improvement as the season progressed and capped the year with a promising performance in Texas’ 41-27 Citrus Bowl win over Michigan, accounting for 221 passing yards, 155 rushing yards, and 4 total touchdowns.
Over his final five regular-season games, he threw 12 touchdown passes against only 2 interceptions, a total that grew to 14 TDs and 2 INTs when including his Citrus Bowl performance.
Manning’s potential is expected to grow in 2026, and Texas also assembled a promising roster around him to turn its aspirations into success. As for his draft outlook, his athletic ability and the premium placed on franchise quarterbacks make a fall outside the top 10 seem unlikely, and the upcoming season will also provide him the opportunity to answer the doubts surrounding his NFL future.
