The Justin Herbert case continues to be peculiar. While the upside is obvious to anyone watching him play, the product on the field hasn’t always matched the potential. Now, as he enters the seventh season of his career without a playoff win under his belt, the critics are starting to get louder.
Even though some have valued him extremely highly, others are starting to question the inevitability of his greatness. To that effect, one NFL insider made it clear that the 2026 season could be the most important one of Herbert’s career.
Justin Herbert Has His Back Against the Wall
Jeremy Fowler of ESPN made it clear that this is a make-or-break season for Herbert. Making an appearance on “The Rich Eisen Show,” he laid out his arguments for the upside and belief in the Chargers’ superstar, while also offering a reality check.
“He’s at an inflection point in his career. There’s no doubt,” Fowler said. “Like, he’s got a lot of goodwill in the league. I think, in part, because of what he did those first couple of years was just on fire. And the skill set’s enormous. I think that’s part of it. It’s sort of intoxicating.”
As a result, he believed Herbert carried a certain allure that was drawing people to him. Fowler even argued that the new offensive coordinator in Los Angeles was a direct result of the potential that he offers.
“Mike McDaniel picked the Chargers, in part, because he was the best quarterback of all the OC jobs available, and the Chargers were banking on him giving him some more layups, some easy plays to get easy first downs where he doesn’t have to do everything.”
BUILD YOUR OWN TOP 100: PFN’s FREE NFL Top 100 Builder
However, even with that upside, Fowler wasn’t willing to place all the blame for the Chargers’ failures last season at Herbert’s feet. His main argument came down to the offensive line, which suffered catastrophic blows in the form of injuries to both Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.
“The line was bad last year. It was really bad,” Fowler continued. “It’s not all on him that they fell apart last year. It is somewhat on him, but I think if he doesn’t get it done this year or show some sort of progress or maybe win a playoff game, that goodwill will start to fade.”
BE THE GM OF YOUR FAVORITE TEAM: PFN’s FREE NFL Mock Draft Simulator
Ultimately, though, tying it back to the “inflection point” comment from earlier, the veteran analyst believed that time was running out for Herbert to still be viewed as a project or be ranked on potential. Fowler concluded by saying, “I do believe that it’s year seven. Feels like it’s time.”
Since an extraordinary first three campaigns, where he threw for over 4,300 yards and 25 touchdowns each year, his raw production has trailed off. Unfortunately, that hasn’t come at the overall benefit of the team.
Last year, he threw for 3,727 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while completing 66.4% of his throws. According to PFN’s QB Impact Metric, Herbert posted an impact score of 75.1, ranking 18th in the league.
So far, over six seasons, Herbert has only made the playoffs on three occasions, going 0-3 in those games. Moreover, he has tallied just two touchdowns across all three games, against four interceptions and three fumbles.
As a result, it has truly reached a now-or-never stage with Herbert, who needs to prove that the belief from the Chargers organization and fan base was truly worth it.
