Right now, Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa have become the center of one of the NFL’s most intriguing quarterback competitions.
After parting ways with the Miami Dolphins, Tagovailoa joined the Atlanta Falcons on a one-year, $1.215 Million deal, setting up a direct battle with Penix for the starting job ahead of the new season. Although Atlanta plans to divide starting reps evenly once training camp begins, NFL insider Mike Florio believes Tagovailoa currently holds the edge over Penix in the race.
Mike Florio Reveals Tua Tagovailoa Has Gained an Early Edge Over Michael Penix Jr.
Speaking on “Pro Football Talk,” Florio explained why Penix appears to be slipping behind despite his draft position.
“Usually in a situation like this, when you’ve devoted a top-10 draft pick to a quarterback, there’s going to be an institutional political push to prove that you got it right,” Florio said.
“And that’s going to cause the team to favor the eighth overall pick from the 2024 draft, not that long ago, grand scheme of things. Snap of the fingers, grand scheme of things. But everybody who was involved in the drafting of Michael Penix Jr. is gone.”
Because the decision-makers have changed, the Falcons no longer have the same internal pressure to stick with Penix simply because he was a premium selection.
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Florio also believes the current competition favors the veteran, Tagovailoa.
“But so far, you know, when they finally started Penix, I think it was a Sunday night game against Washington,” Florio added. “He looked pretty good. He’s had some moments, but they didn’t bring Tua Tagovailoa in to clearly be the backup, even though they’re paying him as little as they can given his number of years in the NFL.”
“But Tua is the guy that the new regime brought in — Matt Ryan, Ian Cunningham, and Kevin Stefanski. So if there’s any preference, if it’s close, the preference very well may be to go with Tua unless ownership gets involved.”
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Now, Penix Jr.’s path back to the field has not been easy. The Falcons quarterback tore the ACL in his left knee last November, marking the third time he has suffered the injury during his football career. As a result, he missed the rest of the season and underwent reconstructive surgery.
For now, Penix has continued to make steady progress throughout the offseason. He has received clearance to throw and participate in individual Phase 2 OTA work, including seven-on-seven drills. However, he has not yet been approved for full 11-on-11 team sessions as he pushes to be ready for Week 1.
Before the injury ended his campaign, Penix posted an 88.5 passer rating with 1,982 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions across nine games.
Meanwhile, Tagovailoa enters the competition after an uneven 2025 campaign with the Dolphins. In the last three games, Miami replaced him with rookie QB Quinn Ewers. Still, Tagovailoa threw for 2,660 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions in 14 games while matching Penix’s 88.5 passer rating.
According to PFN’s QB Impact Metric, Penix posted an impact score of 72.8 last season, ranking 26th in the league. In comparison, Tagovailoa had an impact score of 72.1 and ranked 28th.
Now, as training camp approaches, the Falcons still have an important decision to make under center. Penix offers long-term upside if he returns at full strength, while Tagovailoa brings experience and valuable starting snaps.
Atlanta will get its first extended look at both quarterbacks when training camp officially opens with practice on Wednesday, July 29.
