Some kids could walk in on the day of an exam and do well, but most can’t. Most need to go over the material, study, and work on problem areas. The world of fantasy football is no different, but the learning process is unique for everyone.
There are thousands of micro-trends to weigh however you see fit, and every manager has strengths and weaknesses that need to be considered. As you begin the prep process for this upcoming season, these are three trends from last season that deserve your attention.
Fantasy Football Lessons Learned
Quarterbacks: No Risk It, No Biscuit
Much has been made over the past handful of years when it comes to Cover-2 defenses, but has that jumped the shark a bit?
Not the defense itself, but fearing it.
The focus on it forced offenses to adjust. The bet was simple: you’re not going to be patient enough to kill us with papercuts.
It worked for a bit, but offenses (specifically quarterbacks) have grown so confident in their efficiency that they are now comfortable rolling the dice down the field, understanding that the impact of a missed opportunity can be mitigated by chunk gains surrounding it.
That’s a lot of words to tee up the idea that you want to value QBs willing to take shots. In 2025, the average depth of throw (aDOT) for the top-10 fantasy QBs was 9.2% higher than the top-10 from 2024.
Take it a step further, and you’ll notice that this is as much a trend for weekly upside as it is annual:
- 15 of 22 30-point games had a +20% deep throw rate
- 16 of 22 30-point games had an above-average aDOT
Ranking Risers: Caleb Williams and Jaxson Dart
It shouldn’t be a surprise that the new generation is home to two QBs ready to take advantage of this trend. Williams saw his average aDOT rise by 7.5% in his first year under Ben Johnson, and there is no shortage of reasons to think we will see him step on the gas with even more authority in 2026 (I addressed some of them as a part of my Bold Fantasy Football Takes piece).
As for Dart, is there a pass-catching quartet more geared to produce vertically than what he has access to? A healthy Malik Nabers (only three targets from Dart last season) would obviously go a long way, but the additions of Darnell Mooney (13.0 yards per catch for his career, 15.5 as recently as 2024 with the Falcons) and Isaiah Likely (over 11.0 yards per catch in three consecutive seasons) are what truly make this roster capable of making the most of Dart’s potential.
Don’t Forget About the TEs With That QB Trend
It’s natural to raise the stock of a Jameson Williams type given the data I just gave you, and there’s nothing wrong with that, but that’s not something we learned. Those boom-or-bust receivers are going to largely remain exactly who you think they are: you could argue that the weekly ceilings are on the rise, but with a low floor, you’re still being asked to take on risk whenever you slot them into your lineup.
The tight end position is different. It’s different in that big plays aren’t expected, and it’s different because you only get to start one (and I’m only rostering one at any given time). In 2024, we saw chain-moving tight ends shine, breaking recent trends. However, the rebound in 2025 taught me that ’24 was an outlier, not the beginning of something new.
- In 2025, 4 of the top 5 fantasy TEs had an above-positional-average aDOT
- In 2024, just 1 of the top 5 did
- In 2023, 4 of the top 6 did
- In 2020, 2021, and 2022, at least 3 of the top 4 did
Ranking Risers: Isaiah Likely, Hunter Henry, and Dalton Kincaid
I mentioned Likely above, and it stands to reason that an athlete like him is in a good spot in an offense that I expect to level up in terms of aggression. I went over some of his case in a short social clip (@KyleSoppePFN), and the fact that his aDOT is 1.3 yards greater than the positional average further underlines the potential in this discounted profile.
As for the AFC East options, both were used more as vertical threats last season than most at the position, and with both offenses built around a franchise QB, I see no reason to expect anything different.
Caleb Williams was mentioned above, playing for a Bears offense that got out of the DJ Moore business as they embrace a more vertical approach. Well, Moore is set to soak up some of the chain-moving responsibilities in Buffalo these days, putting Kincaid in a spot to take full advantage when lined up against a lumbering defender.
The runout for Henry is a little less clean with A.J. Brown now in the mix, but I don’t think that alone should take him off the streaming radar. We know that Drake Maye is capable of special things, and if you agree with me in thinking that TreVeyon Henderson can deliver on some of his promise, then defenses are going to be left with no choice but to press the line of scrimmage.
If that’s the case, I trust this scheme to take full advantage of Henry’s physical gifts in plus-matchups. He may struggle to be a top-10 option, but matching his seven touchdowns from a season ago is possible, and I’d bet on him having a few big weeks along the way.
Home Run-Hitting RBs Are Good Targets
That may sound obvious, but we tend to focus on volume and put less weight on single-carry upside.
The Derrick Henry play log doesn’t work for everyone (13 carries for 37 yards before a 65-yard touchdown), but we are trending in a direction where the very top of the running back board is more about big swings than it is a consistent grind.
Top 5 Fantasy Football Running Backs
- 2023: 84.5% gain rate
- 2024: 84.1% gain rate
- 2025: 82.5% gain rate
Ranking Risers: Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, and Kenneth Walker III
Walker is likely the name you associate most with this profile, and with him in Kansas City, I don’t think that changes. Of the 49 RBs with 100+ carries in 2025, the reigning Super Bowl MVP ranked third in percentage of carries gaining 10+ yards (14.9%, positional average: 10.4%). This Chiefs offense will likely be one that gets better with time as Patrick Mahomes nears full strength, which would allow Walker to be at his best when his best is required for our purposes.
Jeanty and Hampton are two of the more explosive backs in this game, and both should benefit from having a season of experience now under their belts. They should also get more help from offenses that are increasingly built for them to succeed.
Of those 49 running backs, Jeanty and Hampton both ranked as top-10 options in terms of percentage of yards gained after contact. They showed proof of concept when it comes to dealing with the physicality of the pro game; now imagine what happens if they aren’t running behind the two worst offensive lines in the sport (per our Offensive Impact grading).
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