Aryna Sabalenka’s 2026 record on natural surfaces has caused worry in the tennis community, but not enough to trigger ‘panic,’ according to former doubles No. 1 Rennae Stubbs. Stubs believes that the upcoming swing could provide some relief for the World No. 1 given her record on hardcourts.
Sabalenka was on a roll during the first half of the 2026 hardcourt swing, winning three titles in Brisbane, Indian Wells, and Miami. She came close to winning a third Australian Open title, but arch-rival Elena Rybakina outclassed her in the final.
Rennae Stubbs Questions Aryna Sabalenka’s Perplexing Slump Ahead of North American Swing
After defending her Miami Open trophy, though, Sabalenka didn’t reach a single final on either clay or grass. Her best result was a semifinal run at the Berlin Tennis Open, where she crumbled in the third set against Jessica Pegula, with a 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-0 score.
This was reminiscent of her previous loss at the French Open, where she led 6-3, 4-1 against Diana Shnaider in the quarterfinal but unexpectedly squandered the advantage to lose 3-6, 7-5, 6-0.
“Where does she go from here? She goes to her favorite surface. She goes to hardcourts. I don’t think she’s panicking yet. We’ll see how she does on the hardcourts. That’s the real tell. Clearly, we know it’s her best surface. And it has to be a readjustment,” Stubbs said on the Rennae Stubbs Tennis Podcast.
Notably, the World No. 1 has suffered multiple three-set losses from winnable positions this season. At the Madrid Open, she missed six match points before she was sent packing by Hailey Baptiste. In Rome, she couldn’t hold her advantage against Sorana Cîrstea in the second set and ultimately lost the contest 2-6, 6-3, 7-5.
During the Australian Open final, she let go a 3-0 lead against Rybakina in the third set to lose the title with a 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 score. Meanwhile, at Wimbledon, the 28-year-old couldn’t challenge Naomi Osaka, who came out with all guns blazing to win 6-2, 7-6(2) in the fourth round.
“I don’t know what’s going on. I don’t know where the lack of confidence is coming from. She was absolutely hit and blown off the court by Naomi Osaka in that match,” Stubbs said. “Did she play poorly? No. Did Naomi play fantastic? yes.”
According to the former Australian player and WTA coach, Sabalenka remains the favorite for the North American hardcourt swing, including the WTA 1000 tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati and the US Open. “I don’t think her team, she, or anyone in the tennis world is super panicked about that yet.”
She, however, raised alarms over her Grand Slam drought. “There are some questions to be answered from her when it comes to having not won a Major title this year as the No. 1 player in the world.”
Sabalenka is stuck at four Grand Slam trophies in eight finals, and her most recent win came almost a year ago in New York. This time around, the player is expected to face immense pressure as she looks to end her drought, with Rybakina breathing down her neck to clinch the World No. 1. She presently holds a 407-point lead.
“There’s a lot of pressure on her shoulders to be able to do that at the US Open,” Stubbs noted. “We’ll see how she comes back from this little trip to Greece and reinvents her game a little bit on the hardcourt. But those questions certainly need to be answered.”
Sabalenka recently spent time in Greece, her go-to holiday destination, with her friends and fiancé. She is also visiting her home country, Belarus, ahead of her return to competition.
