The collective patience of the Trojan family is slowly inching towards an expiration date. Since Lincoln Riley’s arrival at USC, every year has been hailed as “the year.”
Yet, it never happened. Now, he is staring at a difficult situation.
Josh Pate Details USC Fans’ Expectations for Lincoln Riley
National analyst Josh Pate appeared on the latest episode of “Josh Pate’s College Football Show” and laid bare the mounting anxiety in Los Angeles, delivering a blunt assessment of what Riley faces in his fifth year at Troy.
“Is it going to be playoff caliber or is it not?” Pate asked. “And I think a lot of the USC fanbase looks and says, ‘Come on now. If we don’t get it done this year, he’s not the guy.’ And that’s a lot of pressure. That’s a lot of pressure because you have no margin for error anymore.”
“There is no screwing it up this year, going eight and four, and then telling your folks, ‘Well, we’re on our way there. We’re getting close.’ That’s what you say in year two. You can’t say that this many years in. So, I’d say USC is there.”
Pate’s comments slice directly through the honeymoon dust that settled after Riley’s initial 11-3 debut in 2022. The statistical reality since then has been hard to stomach for a fanbase used to Pete Carroll-era dominance. But now Riley enters 2026 with a 35-18 record at USC.
While a 66% winning percentage is respectable at most programs, it falls well short of the standard demanded for a coach earning an eight-figure salary. Not to mention the void left by Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane.
Outside of sophomore Tanook Hines and NC State transfer Terrell Anderson, the wide receiver room is a complete youth movement featuring true freshmen Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, Ethan Feaster, and Trent Mosley.
On the defensive end, Riley hired legendary TCU mastermind Gary Patterson as his new full-time defensive coordinator, taking over for D’Anton Lynn. Patterson brings his trademark, highly sophisticated 4-2-5 scheme, designed to combat high-tempo passing attacks in the modern game.
The primary challenge standing between Riley and a College Football Playoff berth is a nightmare regular-season schedule. USC’s schedule offers zero room to breathe, featuring high-stakes matchups against powerhouse programs like Oregon, Penn State, Washington, and an October 31 blockbuster home game against Ohio State.
Despite this, the expectations are singular: make the expanded 12-team playoff, or face the consequences.
Currently, PFSN’s CFB Playoff Meter gives the Trojans a 50% chance to make the College Football Playoff.
