It is May, and the NFL landscape has shifted significantly following the NFL Draft and the initial wave of free agency. Managers are already scouring early data to find an edge over their competition. While the heart of draft season is months away, comparing early rankings to current ADP is the first step in building a winning fantasy football roster. Some players are currently being valued far differently by the consensus. Let’s dive into some of them at the running back position.
Rankings vs. ADP
Obligatory caveat: It’s May. I just did my first pass of redraft rankings following the NFL Draft. It’s early…very early. ADP will change. My rankings will change. My entire opinion on some players may change. The heart of fantasy draft season is over three months away. The research is in its very early stages. But that doesn’t mean we can’t compare rankings to ADP.
ADP matters. A lot. Generally, and especially more recently, ADP is pretty sharp. Yes, outliers are how we win championships in fantasy football and each season is typically decided by a handful of difference-making players. Identifying those players is the key to success. That means looking at where each manager’s personal rankings deviates from ADP and determining who is wrong…because someone is wrong. It might be ADP. It might be us. Either way, whenever there is a significant gap between a ranking and ADP, someone will be wrong.
That’s what I’m doing today. Looking at few running backs that I have ranked meaningfully above or below consensus.
Now, the nature of this exercise is much different in May than it is in August. By August, my takes on players have crystallized. I am much more confident in what I think these players will do.
The same goes for ADP. In May, June, and even July, all we really have is Best Ball ADP. Managed season-long drafts are not happening yet. By mid August, we will know where the market stands.
Right now, the goal is not to draw to conclusions. It’s to figure out what questions to ask. Here are several players where my initial ranking differs from ADP (values taken from Underdog Best Ball).
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
ADP: RB12
My Rank: RB7
It is generally wise to remain skeptical of Day 3 running backs, even after they seemingly proved themselves. The NFL is littered with Day 3/UDFA RBs who flashed early in their careers only to fizzle out.
Chase Brown has now posted back to back seasons of 15.9 and 16.6 PPR PPG. Yet, he’s still not out of the woods as a former fifth round pick.
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I understand the hesitation. Former Round 5 pick. Benefited from several games with an 80+% snap share. The Bengals have shown a desire to have a more split backfield, but injuries forced Brown into a larger workload. Heading into this season, they’re probably going to try and make this more of a 60/40 split once again.
On the flip side, Brown averaged 22.3 PPG from Weeks 13-18. Over that span, he averaged a 63% snap share.
Yes, he ran hot on touchdowns, scoring eight times over his final five games. But Brown had five other games last season with 15+ fantasy points without scoring. He saw a 14.5% target share, was efficient (4.8 yards per touch), and plays on an elite offense with minimal touch competition in his backfield.
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP: RB19
My Rank: RB24
This isn’t a massive deviation, but it’s enough to discuss. Last season, Bucky Irving was MY GUY. I was all in. For the first month of the season, that looked like a great call. Irving was averaging 18.0 PPG. He was heavily involved as a receiver with at least four receptions in each game. Things were looking great. Then, the injuries happened.
Irving returned in Week 13 and was not the same player. The rushing volume was still there, but Bucs coaches made a deliberate decision to take away his red zone and receiving role.
Irving did not register a single carry inside the five yard line at all last season. From Weeks 15-18, during a stretch of the season where every game mattered as the Bucs were fighting for the NFC South title, Irving’s best fantasy outing was 10.8 points. He caught one or zero passes in three of those four games. Irving was purely two down grinder who didn’t catch passes and didn’t get goal line carries.
This offseason, the Bucs lost Rachaad White, but replaced him with Kenneth Gainwell, who fills that exact same receiving back role. They also brought back Sean Tucker, who served as the short yardage and goal line back.
Perhaps the injury was to blame and Irving will go back to the uber-efficient player we saw in his rookie year when he was the No. 4 RB in PFSN Impact Score. Last season, though, he graded out as No. 47 and was, by far, the worst running back in rushing yards over expected per carry. Time will tell, but for now, I am out on Bucky Irving.
TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots
ADP: RB20
My Rank: RB29
It’s easy to paint the upside picture for TreVeyon Henderson. He was an early Round 2 pick last season. He flashed explosive upside, registered three games of 28+ fantasy points as a rookie. Now, Henderson enters his sophomore season, a year we typically see players make leaps. We’re another year into Mike Vrabel’s tenure. Everyone is more experienced. The entire team could take a step forward.
Why am I out on Henderson (for now)? He couldn’t get on the field until both Rhamondre Stevenson and Terrell Jennings got hurt. Then, once he got a chance and seemingly proved himself with 243 total yards and five touchdowns across Weeks 10-11, Stevenson returned and immediately banished Henderson into a backup role.
The NFL playoffs don’t count for fantasy football, but that doesn’t mean they can’t provide valuable information. The Patriots played the maximum of four postseason contests, reaching the Super Bowl. Henderson’s snap share in the four most important games of the season: 38%, 40%, 7%, 40%. Fantasy points in each contest: 4.6, 3.3, 0.5, 7.5.
Rhamondre Stevenson’s snap share in those games: 65%, 59%, 93%, 63%. His fantasy points: 15.8, 12.1, 7.1, 17.3.
The question I would need to have answered to change my mind is: Why should we expect anything different in 2026?
Rachaad White, Washington Commanders
ADP: RB40
My Rank: RB30
I never thought I’d become a Rachaad White guy. He’s been a fade for me his entire career on account of him being one of the worst rushers in the NFL. But one thing White has always been good at is volume. When the Bucs needed him to shoulder the load, he did it.
White has missed one game in his entire career. He’s handled 20+ touches 12 times. Last year, White averaged a respectable 11.6 PPG without Bucky Irving in the lineup.
The Commanders enter the 2026 season with Jacory Croskey-Merritt as the presumptive starter. Chris Rodriguez is now in Jacksonville. They brought back Jeremy McNichols, but he really only saw the field sparingly last year and was specifically the receiving back. White does that job better. They drafted Kaytron Allen, who could become a thing, but I’m not really concerned about any Day 3 running back.
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White has the highest draft capital, longest track record, and is the only back on the team that has proven he can handle significant volume on the ground and through the air. Why is JCM going ahead of White?
Croskey-Merritt was a seventh round pick last season who needed Austin Ekeler to get hurt to get a chance. Then, JCM lost his lead back role to Rodriguez.
The Commanders have no allegiance to any of their backs. Whoever plays the best will see the most touches. I would be very surprised if that wasn’t White.
