With the NFL Draft approaching, the offseason evaluation cycle is in full swing, and with it comes a flood of opinions, hot takes, and shifting narratives. Separating real insight from noise can be a challenge, but this week’s quarterback debate has caught serious attention.
The focus? Ty Simpson vs. Fernando Mendoza.
Fernando Mendoza Faces Real Competition for the QB1 Spot in 2026 NFL Draft
What once looked like a one-man race at the top of the 2026 NFL Draft quarterback class is beginning to feel much tighter. And one of the most respected voices in the industry just added fuel to that conversation.
NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay didn’t hold back when discussing the two signal-callers:
“My eyes tell me Ty Simpson’s every bit as good as — in some ways better and more NFL-ready — than Fernando Mendoza.”
“My eyes tell me Ty Simpson’s every bit as good as—in some ways better and more NFL-ready than—[Fernando] Mendoza.”@McShay13 talks about whether there’s a big gap between Ty Simpson and Fernando Mendoza. pic.twitter.com/GnttkVROPc
— The Ringer (@ringer) March 25, 2026
That’s a bold statement, especially considering Mendoza’s Heisman-winning resume and the consistency he’s shown at the college level. But McShay isn’t alone in this evaluation. Former NFL quarterback and analyst Dan Orlovsky has echoed similar sentiments, suggesting the perceived gap between the two may not be as wide as many initially believed.
For much of the early draft cycle, Mendoza appeared to be the clear-cut QB1. However, as more evaluators dive deeper into film, Simpson is gaining momentum and respect.
At his best, Simpson has flashed high-end traits that translate to the next level: arm talent, processing ability, and poise under pressure. Early in the season, he looked every bit like a Heisman contender, stringing together performances that put him firmly in the national spotlight.
However, there are still legitimate concerns.
Simpson finished the year with just 15 career starts, and that lack of experience showed as the season progressed. As defenses accumulated more film, his production dipped compared to his dominant first nine games.
Durability has also been a question, with his relatively slight frame contributing to some injury concerns during the year.
Even so, the overall body of work remains impressive. Simpson still posted a top-25 PFSN CFB QB Impact Grade, reinforcing that his talent ceiling remains among the highest in the class.
One factor working in Simpson’s favor is the situation around him, particularly at Alabama. Alabama’s run game struggled mightily, averaging just 104.1 rushing yards per game, good for 125th in the nation.
That imbalance placed significantly more pressure on Simpson to carry the offense, often forcing him into predictable passing situations.
For a program historically known for dominant ground attacks, that statistic is almost unheard of. And it adds important context when evaluating Simpson’s late-season regression.
Where the 2026 NFL Draft QB Race Stands Between Mendoza and Simpson
Despite the growing buzz, Mendoza still holds the edge in most consensus rankings. Mendoza currently sits at QB1 and a top-5 overall prospect on PFSN’s Consensus Big Board, backed by elite production and a full season of high-level play.
But the conversation is clearly shifting.
The perceived gap between Mendoza and Simpson is shrinking, and in some evaluators’ eyes, it may already be gone. More notably, there appears to be a steeper drop-off between Simpson and the next tier of quarterbacks than there is between him and Mendoza.
As the draft process continues, with pro days, interviews, and deeper film study still ahead, this quarterback race is far from settled.
Draft season always brings “smoke and mirrors,” but when multiple respected evaluators arrive at similar conclusions, it’s worth paying attention. Simpson may not have Mendoza’s resume.
But if analysts like Todd McShay are right, he might have something just as valuable in the eyes of NFL teams:
NFL-ready traits that could ultimately make him the better long-term bet. And if that’s the case, the race for QB1 in the 2026 NFL Draft is only just getting started.
