The Buffalo Bills have finally done it. After two years of watching Josh Allen carry an underwhelming wide receiver room on his back, Buffalo has acquired DJ Moore from the Chicago Bears. The move addresses the Bills’ most glaring offensive need while also shaking up the fantasy football values of everyone in the Buffalo pass-catching hierarchy. Here is what it means.
DJ Moore’s Fantasy Outlook With the Bills
Moore is 29 years old and coming off the worst season of his career. He posted a 50-682-6 line across 17 games with the Bears, averaging just 10.0 fantasy points per game. For context, he had been above 14.0 PPG in five of his previous six seasons.
His 1.26 yards per route run was alarmingly low, and a 16% target share combined with a 15.7% targets per route run rate told the story of a receiver who simply could not earn the ball in Chicago’s offense.
The Bears’ situation also evolved around him.
The rise of Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III ate into his workload, and by 2025, Moore went from the clear alpha to an expendable piece. He finished with just four weeks as a top-25 WR and posted a second consecutive season with a career-low yards per route run. The efficiency numbers are a concern that does not disappear simply by changing zip codes.
That said, the destination matters enormously. The Bills have been a top-six scoring offense for six consecutive seasons. They rank first in the NFL in third-down conversion rate since 2020 at 47.4% and first in red zone offense at 64.3% over that same stretch.
Those numbers mean the offense consistently creates meaningful opportunities in the game’s most target-rich situations. Put a legitimate WR1 in that system, and the volume calculus changes immediately.
The more interesting wrinkle is what Moore’s usage might look like. His average target depth spiked from 7.3 in 2024 to 12.5 in 2025.
With Khalil Shakir operating as the underneath option and Dalton Kincaid running routes in the middle of the field, Moore could carve out a downfield role that actually maximizes the version of him that showed up in terms of aDOT last year.
The runway for target-share is real. With no legitimate competition for the WR1 role, Moore could approach a 25% target share in Buffalo, and that kind of volume next to Josh Allen looks very different than anything he had in Chicago.
How Does Moore Fit in Buffalo?
To understand the impact here, you first have to understand just how desperately the Bills needed this. In the two seasons since trading Stefon Diggs, Buffalo’s entire wide receiver room combined for just three 20-point PPR games: Keon Coleman in the Week 1 comeback against the Ravens and Shakir in Week 14 of 2024 and Week 8 of last season.
That is three explosive performances from a position group over the course of two full NFL seasons.
The Bills were not so much a passing offense as they were a Josh Allen survival exercise. In their playoff loss to the Broncos in January, the top five Buffalo receivers were Shakir, Brandin Cooks, Keon Coleman, Mecole Hardman, and Curtis Samuel. No serious contender should be operating like that.
Moore immediately becomes the best wide receiver Allen has thrown to since Diggs. That is good for Moore, and it is good for his fantasy value in a season where Joe Brady’s conservative game-planning has kept the Bills inexplicably run-heavy. Buffalo’s 49% neutral game script run rate was the third highest in the league last season. The volume may not be unlimited, but what exists will be concentrated in Moore’s direction.
The biggest casualty is Shakir. He is a volume merchant who thrived precisely because he was the only game in town. He still averaged just 10.4 PPG last season with a 21.1% target share. That target share is going to shrink now that Moore is in the building.
Shakir is a fine player who fills a role, but he is not special enough to maintain WR2 or even WR3 value when a true alpha is drawing the defense’s attention every week. Fantasy managers should temper expectations accordingly.
