Daniel Jones appeared on track for a lucrative extension after a strong resurgence with the Indianapolis Colts, but a season-ending Achilles injury complicated negotiations. With no long-term deal in place, the Colts used the transition tag, allowing Jones to explore offers while retaining the right to match.
Even with the injury, Jones is expected to command significant interest on the open market, with the Minnesota Vikings reportedly among the suitors. The real question now is how large a contract it will take, with projections suggesting a deal north of $122 million.
Projecting Daniel Jones’ Next NFL Contract
Jones had the Colts sitting at 8–2 and briefly ranked fifth in PFSN’s Quarterback Impact Metric during a 10-game stretch that shifted the tone around the franchise. But a fractured fibula slowed him late in the season before an Achilles tear in December ended his year and reshaped Indianapolis’ offseason plans as well as Jones’ market value.
After failing to reach a long-term agreement, the Colts placed the rare transition tag on Jones, which is valued at $37.8 million and nearly $6 million less than the franchise tag.
The transition tag was last used on a QB in 1996, by the Atlanta Falcons on Jeff George. Jones is free to negotiate with other teams, and while the Colts retain the right to match any offer, they would receive no compensation if they decline.
The two sides now have until July 15 to negotiate a long-term extension. According to PFSN Analytics’ projection based on Jones’ grades on QB Impact Metric, he is expected to get a three-year, $122.4 million deal with an annual average value of $40.8 million. The projection had a 20% reduction in Jones’ contract value due to his injury.
For comparison, Spotrac projects Jones to receive a four-year, $174.4 million deal with an annual average of $43.5 million, a figure that may have been more realistic without durability concerns.
The Athletic projects a two-year, $88 million deal, while Bleacher Report estimates a three-year, $99 million deal.
In short, Jones’ market appears to fall in the $40 million-per-year range, potentially slightly lower given the injury. NFL insider Peter Schrager recently suggested the Vikings could be a team to watch if Jones gets the transition tag, especially given that he has spent half a season with the team in 2024.
However, a reunion with Indianapolis remains the most logical and likely outcome, and the Colts’ decision to tag Jones instead of standout wide receiver Alec Pierce signals that their priority remains securing stability at quarterback.
