In 2026, winning an ATP title is easier than facing Carlos Alcaraz and hoping to secure a win against him. The World No. 1 has been in an otherworldly form ever since he set foot back on the tennis courts in January in Melbourne. So far, he has gone unbeaten this year, winning all 12 matches while showing no signs of slowing down.
Tennis analysts, including Eugenie Bouchard, Sam Querrey, and Roger Federer’s former coach, Paul Annacone, have given their verdict on Alcaraz’s probability of winning his third title of the 2026 season.
Carlos Alcaraz Backed by Tennis Analysts To Win Indian Wells
After losing the 2025 ATP Finals to World No. 2 Jannik Sinner, Alcaraz returned to the professional tennis courts in mid-January in Melbourne. He started his Australian Open campaign and reached the semifinals without dropping a single set. He then faced the World No. 3 Alexander Zverev, who gave him the toughest battle of his run, nearly taking the match to the five-hour and 30-minute mark.
However, the Spaniard absolutely annihilated the German and then went on to lift his seventh major title, defeating the 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic to complete his career Grand Slam.
After taking two weeks off, he returned to Doha, where he dropped just one set throughout the entire tournament. Against Karen Khachanov, Alcaraz faced tough competition in the first set, receiving a time violation warning from the chair umpire.
This led to a heated argument between the Spaniard and Marija Čičak, but despite this, he remained focused and defeated Arthur Fils 6-2, 6-1 in the championship match to lift his career’s 26th ATP title.
Now, with just a few days remaining for the BNP Paribas Open main draw to commence, Bouchard, Querrey, and Annacone sat down to discuss the possibilities of the tournament and consider the favorites heading into Indian Wells. However, it was a one-sided debate, as all three stars agreed on one decision: Carlos Alcaraz.
When asked which Australian Open champion is more likely to win the WTA/Masters 1000 title, Bouchard said, “He hasn’t lost a match all year and is making his schedule wisely. He is winning a lot but should still feel fresh heading into the BNP Paribas Open.”
Without any hesitation, Querrey stated, “Alcaraz. His only real competition is Sinner, and even that has become more of a question as Alcaraz has considerably raised his level through title runs in Melbourne and Doha.” Even though he acknowledged Rybakina’s prowess, due to the depth in women’s side, he added, “It’s tough to pick her over Carlos in a battle of who is more likely to win.”
Federer’s former coach Annacone chimed in, adding that, “Alcaraz. Because of grittier courts, I go with Carlos to win his third Indian Wells title over Elena to win her second. It’s tougher to finish points in Tennis Paradise, and the combination of his superior movement and offensive variety makes him extremely tough to beat in these conditions.”
The faith these legends have in Alcaraz shows just how formidable he is on the ATP side. If he manages to maintain his championship form, it would be very difficult for others, even Sinner, to compete against him and win titles.
Alcaraz’s Dominance on the ATP Tour
For the past two years, the duopoly of SinCaraz has been untouchable in Grand Slam tournaments, almost guaranteeing a showdown in the final. However, it all changed this year, as the 24-time Grand Slam champion, Djokovic, eliminated Sinner, who had been the most dominant hard-court player in the past two years, in the semifinals in Melbourne.
Apart from this, he also lost to the Czech rising star Jakub Menšík in the quarterfinals of the Qatar Open. These losses do not decrease the credibility of Sinner’s champion mindset, but do show a slight dip in his form, whereas Alcaraz has only grown even more dominant.
This year, the Italian made his return to California for the first time in two years, after his consecutive semifinal finishes in 2023 and 2024. Last year, he missed the tournament due to the three-month suspension after testing positive twice for the banned performance-enhancing substance clostebol.
As the top stars have started arriving in Indian Wells, Alcaraz is still in his hometown of Murcia in Spain, where recent social media footage captured him practicing on the courts. This shows that the champion is too focused on his gameplay and will be looking forward to lifting his third title at the venue, after previously winning it in 2023 and 2024.
